Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

Last Updated on September 28, 2026 8:03 am by Henry

Team Overview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2019. The way it happened matters. Tampa Bay started 6-2 with Baker Mayfield in the MVP conversation. Then it won just two of its final nine games. Carolina took the division on a three-way tiebreaker, despite losing to Tampa Bay in Week 18. Injuries drove most of it, although the extent only became clear later. Mayfield played from Week 2 onward with a sprained MCL and PCL, a biceps contusion and a shoulder problem.

Contracts, rather than football, dominated the offseason. Mayfield called the two-year extension offer disrespectful and paused negotiations when camp opened. The standoff finally ended on September 9. That day, Tampa Bay signed him to a three-year, $165 million extension, the richest deal in franchise history. Meanwhile, Vita Vea requested a trade and held in through camp before reporting in time for Week 1. Mike Evans left for San Francisco, and Lavonte David retired, ending an era of leadership. Todd Bowles kept his job but fired several assistants. Zac Robinson also arrives to run a reworked offense built on wide zone concepts.

Offensive Line Analysis

On paper, this is one of the best units in football. It is also the main reason Tampa Bay entered the season as the division favorite. Tristan Wirfs is an All-Pro left tackle, and Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch add real quality inside. The concern, however, is availability rather than talent. Wirfs missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury. All three also missed time during last season’s collapse. Robinson’s wide zone install asks more of this group in lateral movement, which suits their athleticism. So far the run game has responded, with 137 yards at 5.5 per carry against Cleveland. Keeping them on the field is the whole question.

Defensive Line Analysis

Vea is the best player on this defense. Tampa Bay spent most of the summer without him, because he requested a trade and held in through camp. He reported in time for the opener, which matters more than any single addition. His ability to occupy blockers is what allows everyone else to work one-on-one. Tampa Bay also drafted Rueben Bain Jr. 15th overall to reignite the pass rush. The franchise has gone a quarter century without a homegrown ten-sack season, and Bain has flashed early. Meanwhile, A’Shawn Robinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad arrived to cover departures in the front seven. The unit held up against the run last year, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. However, it had the worst red zone defense in the league. Those red zone breakdowns are exactly what Bowles reorganized his staff to fix. Through two games, the run defense has been strong, holding Cleveland to 44 rushing yards. The pass rush, on the other hand, has produced just three sacks.

2026 NFL Season

Week 1

Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday, September 13 | 1:00 PM ET | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

Tampa Bay opens on the road as an underdog. The Bengals sit at -3.5 and -198 on the moneyline, with the Buccaneers at +164. The total is 50.5, the highest number on the entire Week 1 board. Two offenses that can score in bunches meet two defenses with real questions. That is precisely the setup oddsmakers price this way.

That total is the story here. Tampa Bay’s red zone defense was the worst in football last season. Now it faces one of the league’s more efficient scoring offenses, possibly without Vea in the middle. Still, Mayfield has the receiving depth to keep pace. Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan are replacing Evans by committee. So this projects as a shootout that comes down to which defense gets one stop.

Week 1 Recap

Tampa Bay lost 33-27 in Cincinnati, and the box score is a study in how to give a game away. The Buccaneers lost four fumbles, and the Cincinnati Bengals recovered all four. The first one set the tone. Six minutes into the game, Myles Murphy strip-sacked Baker Mayfield, and Cincinnati recovered for a touchdown. By the second quarter, Tampa Bay trailed 21-3.

What makes this one sting is that Mayfield played well. He completed 23 of 28 for 216 yards, an 82.1 percent clip and a 98.8 rating. He also added a nine-yard scramble for a late score. In fact, the Buccaneers never punted once all game. Every possession ended in points, a turnover or the end of a half. Bucky Irving added a 10-yard touchdown run as Tampa Bay cut a 17-point deficit to 33-27 late. Even with four turnovers on the road, the margin was still one possession.

The defense deserves more credit than the final score suggests. Vita Vea reported and played, and his deflection led to a 38-yard interception return for a touchdown. That pick-six pulled Tampa Bay back into the game. The front also held Cincinnati to three touchdowns despite nine red zone rushing attempts. As a result, Evan McPherson had to kick four field goals, including makes from 55 and 58 yards. The problem was the run defense, which conceded 106 yards, and a pass rush that produced one sack. Next, Tampa Bay returns home against Cleveland, where fixing the ball security comes first.

Week 2

Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, September 20 | 1:00 PM ET | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Tampa Bay opens as a heavy home favorite at -425 on the moneyline. The Cleveland Browns sit at +325, with the spread at 8.5 points and the total at 40.5. That matches the widest spread on the Week 2 board, and it comes with the lowest total of the week. Cleveland arrives at 0-1 after a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville with Deshaun Watson under center.

This is Mayfield’s revenge game, and the market has priced it accordingly. Cleveland took him first overall in 2018, and he ended the Browns’ playoff drought before the relationship soured. The number to watch is that 40.5 total, a full ten points below last week’s 50.5. Oddsmakers clearly expect Cleveland to contribute almost nothing. That is a fair read, since the Browns managed ten points against Jacksonville. If Tampa Bay holds onto the ball, this should not be close. After all, four lost fumbles were the only thing standing between this team and a 1-0 start.

Week 2 Recap

Tampa Bay lost 23-19 at home to the Cleveland Browns. It stings more than the four-fumble loss in Cincinnati. This time the Buccaneers were heavy favorites, and they did not beat themselves with turnovers. They led 16-6 in the third quarter after Baker Mayfield escaped pressure and hit Emeka Egbuka for a five-yard score. Egbuka made the catch sitting on the turf. Cleveland answered with a field goal and then a 55-yard touchdown from Deshaun Watson to rookie Denzel Boston. Boston broke three tackles on the slant.

Chase McLaughlin went 4 for 4 on field goals, including a 59-yarder. His fourth restored a 19-16 lead early in the final quarter. Watson then converted four third downs on the go-ahead drive. He capped it with a 17-yard score to tight end Blake Whiteheart with 3:51 left. Tampa Bay had reached the Cleveland 28 when lightning suspended the game with two minutes to play. The delay lasted two hours and 12 minutes. After the restart, the Buck moved into the red zone. However, Mayfield’s fourth-and-11 throw to Egbuka in the end zone fell incomplete.

Mayfield completed 21 of 34 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception, a 73.4 rating. Cleveland turned that pick, by Myles Harden, into points. The run game, on the other hand, worked. Tampa Bay ran for 137 yards at 5.5 per carry behind Bucky Irving. The defense also held the Browns to 44 rushing yards. The pass defense was the problem, as Watson completed 24 of 30 for 238 yards and two touchdowns. At 0-2, the Buccaneers already sit a game behind Carolina and New Orleans.

Week 3

Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, September 27 | 4:05 PM ET | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Tampa Bay opens as a home underdog at +110 on the moneyline. The Minnesota Vikings sit at -130, with the spread at 2.5 points and the total at 44.5. That line says as much about the market’s read on the Buck after two losses as about Minnesota. The Vikings, after all, are 2-0 despite starting their backup quarterback last week.

The Vikings won 9-3 in Chicago on the strength of Brian Flores’ defense. That unit held a Bears offense that scored 59 points in Week 1 to a single field goal. Carson Wentz started in place of Kyler Murray, who should clear concussion protocol early this week. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones carried the offense with 105 rushing yards. Justin Jefferson remains the matchup Tampa Bay has to solve. After all, its secondary just let Watson complete 80 percent of his passes. An 0-3 start would leave the preseason division favorite chasing the rest of the NFC South. That makes this as close to a must-win as September gets.

Week 3 Recap

Tampa Bay lost 23-16 to Minnesota at Raymond James Stadium. An 86-yard punt return touchdown in the first quarter gave the Vikings the cushion they needed. Neither offense moved the ball afterwards, because the teams combined to convert four of 32 third downs.

Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception. However, Minnesota sacked him six times and hit him 12 more. Bucky Irving managed only 46 yards on 15 carries. Meanwhile, Emeka Egbuka led the receivers with five catches for 62 yards. Rookie Ted Hurst III caught a 40-yard touchdown, the first of his career.

Defensively, the Buccaneers held Minnesota to 230 total yards and 78 on the ground. That front also recorded three sacks. Even so, Tampa Bay has now lost three straight to open a season, its worst start since 2014. Worse still, Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand late in the fourth quarter. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels handled the final possession in his place.

Week 4

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, October 4 | 1:00 PM ET | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Green Bay visits at 1-2, having just lost 35-14 at home to Atlanta. Jordan Love threw for 312 yards in that defeat, yet the Packers ran for only 17. Green Bay is averaging 48.7 rushing yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the visitors rank last in the league on third down at 27.8 percent. Christian Watson has scored in all three games, so the deep threat remains real.

Green Bay is a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total at 45.5. That short number reflects doubt about Tampa Bay’s quarterback more than any Packers form. If Mayfield cannot go, Daniels steps in again. Still, the matchup offers a path, because Green Bay cannot run the football. A first win has to start with pressure and a short field.

Odds to Win Division and Super Bowl

Odds to Win NFC South: +164

Odds to Win Super Bowl: +5000

Predictions

Overall Record: The Buccaneers project to finish around 9-8, with the win total set at 7.5 and the over priced at -140

Playoff Chances: The division favorite, and the most likely NFC South team to reach January

Super Bowl Chances: A middling long shot, best of a weak division but well behind the NFC’s top tier

Tampa Bay entered the season as the favorite for good reason. Mayfield remains the best quarterback in the NFC South by a comfortable margin, and he now has a long-term deal. The offensive line is also the strongest in the division, and the receiving room stayed deep even after losing Evans. What makes this team hard to trust is what happens on the field. A staff that watched a 6-2 start turn into a collapse has now opened 0-2. First came four lost fumbles in Cincinnati, then a home loss to Cleveland as a heavy favorite. If the ball security holds and Wirfs stays healthy, the Buccaneers can still win this division. If not, the whole thing is up for grabs again.