Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

Last Updated on September 21, 2026 5:08 pm by Erwin Noguera

Team Overview

The Colts enter 2026 chasing the season that got away. Indianapolis raced to an 8–2 start behind a resurgent Daniel Jones, commanding an offense that scored on a league-best 57.6% of its possessions, before a leg fracture and then a torn Achilles in Week 14 ended his year, and the Colts’ season unraveled with seven straight losses to close at 8–9. The bet in Indianapolis is that the first ten games were real: GM Chris Ballard re-signed Jones on a two-year, $88 million deal and brought back Alec Pierce, wagering that a healthy Jones can pick up where he left off.

The rest of the offseason prioritized getting younger and faster on defense. Ballard made ten outside free agent signings, including edge rushers Arden Key and Michael Clemons and interior linemen Jerry Tillery and Derrick Nnadi, and traded longtime captain Zaire Franklin to Green Bay for Colby Wooden, while Michael Pittman was also moved. A defense-heavy draft added linebacker CJ Allen, safety A.J. Haulcy, and edges George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry.

Offensive Line Analysis

Protecting a quarterback returning from an Achilles tear is priority number one, and the Colts must do it without a familiar face: longtime right tackle Braden Smith departed for division-rival Houston. How quickly the reshuffled line settles, and how well it keeps Jones clean and the run game on schedule, will decide whether the offense can recapture its early-2025 efficiency.

Defensive Line Analysis

The front seven got a deliberate youth-and-speed makeover. Key and Clemons add fresh legs off the edge, Tillery, Nnadi, and Wooden deepen the interior rotation, and rookies Gumbs and Curry provide developmental pass-rush upside. The trade of Franklin removes the defense’s tone-setter, though, so a new generation of leaders has to emerge quickly for this unit to hold up in December.

2026 NFL Season

Week 1:

Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, September 13 | 1:00 PM ET | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Baltimore opens as a road favorite, priced at -185 on the moneyline against Indianapolis’s +154, with the total set at 49.5 points. The Colts gave the Ravens all they could handle a season ago behind a resurgent Daniel Jones, but Jones is still working back from a torn Achilles, muddying Indy’s quarterback picture heading into the opener.

A motivated Jackson against a Colts team still sorting out its starting quarterback is a favorable spot for Baltimore, and an immediate test of how much of 2025’s early magic Indianapolis can recapture.

Week 2

Colts at Kansas City Chiefs | Sunday, September 20 | 8:20 PM ET | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Indianapolis heads to Arrowhead for Sunday Night Football as a sizable underdog at +235 on the moneyline against Kansas City’s -290, with the spread at 6.5 points and the total set at 48.5. The Colts opened with a home defeat to Baltimore and still have not settled their quarterback picture, with Daniel Jones working back from a torn Achilles, while the Chiefs close out Week 1 on Monday night against Denver in Patrick Mahomes’s first competitive football since surgery on a torn ACL and LCL.

The schedule is the hidden factor here: Kansas City plays twice in six days, with a quarterback on a rebuilt knee and a right tackle spot they never resolved in the preseason. Indianapolis is not winning this on talent, but 6.5 points against a team on a short turnaround is a friendlier spot than the price suggests, and the Colts at plus money are more live than +235 implies.

Week 3

Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, September 27 | 1:00 PM ET | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Indianapolis are home and priced at +102 on the moneyline against Houston’s -122, getting 1.5 points with the total set at 43.5. Both teams are 0-2. The Colts took Kansas City to overtime at Arrowhead and lost 33-30 on a Butker field goal, leading 20-17 at the break and forcing the extra period at 27-27 before a drive stalled in the red zone. Daniel Jones answered the question hanging over the position, going 22-of-31 for 210 yards with a touchdown to Tyler Warren, and Jonathan Taylor gave the offense the balance it lacked in the opener. Houston arrive having scored six points against Cincinnati a week after allowing 36 to Buffalo.

Near even money at home is the most attractive price Indianapolis have seen this season, and it is there because the record does not describe the team. The Colts have lost to Baltimore and to Kansas City (the two teams that have looked best in the conference) and were the better side for a half in the second of them. Houston have lost to Buffalo and Cincinnati and looked progressively worse doing it. This is a division game between two winless teams where one of them is clearly playing better football, and the market has it as a coin flip. Indianapolis is the side.

Odds to Win Division and Super Bowl

Odds to Win AFC South: +250 to +370 depending on the book. Third choice behind Houston and Jacksonville, with model projections around 9.1 wins.

Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4900 to +5000. A true long shot until Jones proves he’s all the way back.

Predictions

Overall Record: 9–8. The talent that started 8–2 is mostly still here, but the Achilles recovery and a reshuffled offensive line add real variance. A second-place division finish is the likeliest outcome.

Playoff Chances: A genuine bubble team, a healthy Jones through October puts them firmly in the Wild Card race.

Super Bowl Chances: At +4900–+5000, only a fully healthy Jones and a fast-jelling defense make a deep run conceivable.

In summary, the Colts enter 2026 as the AFC South’s biggest wild card. If Daniel Jones returns to his 2025 form behind a stable line, this roster already proved it can play with anyone; if the recovery lingers, a retooled, younger defense may not be enough to keep pace in a division Houston and Jacksonville plan to fight over.