USA vs. Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Preview

The 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup has been full of surprises, and in the semifinals, one of the confederation’s powerhouses, USA will face Guatemala.

The U.S. struggled and needed penalties to eliminate Costa Rica and advance to the next round.

Meanwhile, Guatemala pulled off a major upset by knocking out one of the host nations, Canada, also in a penalty shootout.

CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinals: USA vs. Guatemala Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on USA?

Despite missing most of their stars, the United States remains the heavy favorite. They’re playing at home and have more experienced players, though most of them are from the MLS.

They topped their group with a perfect record, defeating Trinidad and Tobago (5-0), Saudi Arabia (1-0), and Haiti (2-1). In the quarterfinals, they drew 2-2 with Costa Rica and won 4-3 on penalties, with goalkeeper Matthew Freese emerging as the hero by saving three shots.

With players like Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah, Weston McKennie, and Giovanni Reyna absent, the responsibility has fallen on Malik Tillman (PSV), Tyler Adams (Bournemouth), and Chris Richards (Crystal Palace).

Still, it’s not just the Europe-based players making an impact. Several MLS players have stood out, including goalkeeper Freese (New York City), midfielders Maximilian Arfsten (Columbus Crew) and Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake).

The team’s top scorer is Tillman, with three goals and one assist (though he did miss a penalty during the Costa Rica match), while Arfsten has contributed one goal and three assists.

Why Bet on Guatemala?

Guatemala is the biggest surprise of the Gold Cup. While they were champions of this tournament in 1967 and runners-up in 1965 and 1969, that was a different format and a different era. Nowadays, they are far from the top CONCACAF teams, making this achievement truly remarkable.

In the group stage, they eliminated Jamaica, a team with several Premier League players like Leon Bailey, Michail Antonio, and Ethan Pinnock, among others. Then, in the quarterfinals, they defeated Canada in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw.

This team doesn’t feature any big stars. Their only player in European football is Arquímides Ordóñez, who plays in Moldova. The rest either play in the local league or in the United States. Their standout player is 29-year-old striker Rubio Rubin, who plays for Charleston Battery in the USL.

Despite this, coach Luis Fernando Tena has managed to build a solid and effective team. In addition to reaching the semifinals, they also advanced to the final round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers earlier this June.

Final Betting Analysis: United States vs. Guatemala

Guatemala is highly motivated, while the United States doesn’t seem to be taking this tournament too seriously. Even though they’re playing at home, they haven’t generated much excitement, and we believe the emotional momentum of the Central Americans could be key to securing a draw.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange favor the United States, with their Moneyline at -324, while Guatemala sits at +835, and a draw is priced at +464.

The last time these two teams faced off was on March 29, 2016, during World Cup Qualifiers, with the U.S. winning 4-0 thanks to goals from Dempsey, Cameron, Zusi, and Altidore. Of their last 10 meetings, eight were World Cup qualifiers and two were friendlies. In that span, Guatemala won only once—in 2016 (2-0)—and two matches ended in a draw.

Go for a draw. If you bet $100 at +464, you will gain $464 for a total payout of $564.

United States vs. Guatemala Betting Pick: Draw