USA vs. Mexico: CONCACAF Gold Cup Final Preview

We’ve reached the Gold Cup final, and as expected, the two CONCACAF giants will face off once again for the title: the USA vs. Mexico.

The United States found themselves in trouble in the final minutes but ultimately managed to defeat Guatemala 2-1 in the semifinals.

Mexico also faced a tough situation, though they didn’t struggle as much, securing a 1-0 win over Honduras.

CONCACAF Gold Cup Final: USA vs. Mexico Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on USA?

The hosts have reached the final, as expected. While they don’t have many of Europe’s top stars, the few who are present have blended well with MLS players, some of whom are becoming key figures.

They remain unbeaten in the tournament, having defeated Trinidad and Tobago (5-0), Saudi Arabia (1-0), and Haiti (2-1) in the group stage, then drawing 2-2 with Costa Rica and winning on penalties, followed by a recent 2-1 win over Guatemala with a brace from Diego Luna.

The 21-year-old midfielder is one of those domestic league players seizing his opportunity and showcasing his talent. The Real Salt Lake player, born to Mexican parents, scored his first goal for the national team against Costa Rica a few days ago, and now netted a brace. The first came off a rebound from the goalkeeper, and the second was a great individual effort finished with a powerful shot.

Also worth highlighting is Malik Tillman, one of the few “Europe-based” players on the roster, who brings experience and leadership shaped by Mauricio Pochettino. Luna and Tillman are the team’s top scorers, each with three goals and two assists.

Regarding the semifinal match, the U.S. will need to tighten up defensively, as their opponent created several dangerous chances and came close to equalizing on multiple occasions.

Why Bet on Mexico?

Mexico is the current Gold Cup champion and is determined to defend that title. This new era under Javier Aguirre has started in the best possible way, with a title in the CONCACAF Nations League, and now they aim to reestablish their dominance in the region.

In this tournament, they have only conceded two goals, both in their opening match against the Dominican Republic, which they won 3-2. After that came a 2-0 win over Suriname and a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica in the group stage. In the quarterfinals, they faced Saudi Arabia and secured a 2-0 victory, while in the semifinals, they defeated Honduras 1-0 thanks to a goal from Raúl Jiménez.

Mexico was vastly superior to their opponent, but only managed a one-goal margin. Jiménez had gone scoreless in the previous three matches, so it was meaningful for him to find the net before the final. Interestingly, the team’s top scorer is center-back César Montes, having scored three goals in four matches, including a brace against Suriname.

A positive update for Aguirre is that Jesús Gallardo, who had been suspended, will be available again.

Final Betting Analysis: United States vs. Mexico

This is a match full of history and intense rivalry. While it may not be the most dangerous or important to many outsiders, it’s one of the biggest in the world. The United States will play at home and has performed well, but Mexico has shown a solid defense, and their players have a bit more experience than their rivals—something we believe will make the difference in this final, giving them the title.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange favor Mexico, with their Moneyline at +149, while the United States sits at +198, and a draw is priced at +224.

As mentioned before, this is a historic matchup. The last time they faced each other was in a friendly on October 15, 2024, and Mexico won 2-0. The last official match was on March 24, 2024, when the United States emerged victorious 2-0 in the CONCACAF Nations League final.

This will be the eighth Gold Cup final between the two, with the ‘Tri’ winning five of them in 1993, 1998, 2009, 2011, and 2019. The ‘Stars and Stripes’ took the title in the 2017 and 2021 finals. They’ve only faced each other once outside of a final, in the 1991 semifinals, where the U.S. won 2-0. Overall, Mexico holds 12 Gold Cup titles, while the United States has seven.

Additionally, they’ve met twice in the CONCACAF Nations League finals, with the USA winning both in 2023 and 2024.

Go for a win for Mexico. If you bet $100 at +149, you will gain $149 for a total payout of $249.

USA vs. Mexico Betting Pick: Mexico