Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Last Updated on October 14, 2026 9:49 am by Allen

Team Overview

The Bills are looking to bounce back after a gut-wrenching 12-5 finish in 2025 that ended in an overtime collapse to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round and cost Sean McDermott his job after nine seasons at the helm. New head coach Joe Brady, promoted from offensive coordinator, inherits a roster still built around reigning MVP-caliber quarterback Josh Allen and workhorse back James Cook, with new WR1 DJ Moore acquired via trade and pass rusher Bradley Chubb added in free agency to fix a defense that couldn’t stop the run or get after the quarterback last season.

With Allen’s offense intact under a new coaching staff and a retooled defensive identity taking shape under coordinator Jim Leonhard, Buffalo enters 2026 as the betting market’s pick to reclaim the AFC East after New England snapped the Bills’ run of division titles a year ago.

Offensive Line Analysis

Buffalo brings back the core of a line that ranked among the league’s best protecting Allen, with left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown returning after Brown’s contract was restructured to clear cap space, and center Connor McGovern re-signed to a four-year, $52 million deal to anchor the interior. The only real question mark is left guard, where Alec Anderson and free-agent addition Austin Corbett are competing to replace David Edwards, who left for New Orleans in free agency, rounding out a group that gave up a league-low 14 sacks as recently as 2024.

Defensive Line Analysis

The Bills overhauled their pass rush by signing Bradley Chubb to a three-year, $43.5 million deal and drafting Clemson edge rusher T.J. Parker, giving Buffalo two new options to pair with returning edge Greg Rousseau, who led the team with seven sacks last season, and interior lineman Ed Oliver, back after an injury-shortened 2025. If the newcomers hold up, they give new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s revamped scheme a real chance to fix a front that surrendered 5.0 yards per carry and finished outside the top half of the league in total sacks a year ago.

2026 NFL Games

Week 6

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, October 18 | 4:25 PM ET | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Buffalo is a road favorite, priced at -275 on the moneyline against Las Vegas’s +225, with the Bills favored by 6 points and the total set at 53.5, one of the highest on the Week 6 board. Moore and Palmer are both listed as questionable after missing Week 5, and the Bills have their bye in Week 7.

A chance for Buffalo to head into its bye at 5-1 against a Raiders team that has leaned heavily on Kirk Cousins, who has thrown 12 touchdown passes through five games.

Week 5 Recap

Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT) | Monday, October 12 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Buffalo survived a back-and-forth Monday Night Football shootout, with Josh Allen rushing for 121 yards and a touchdown while James Cook added 111 yards on the ground. Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’s 48-yard field goal attempt in overtime, and Tyler Bass then kicked a 45-yard game-winner, giving Allen his first career overtime win after an 0-7 record in extra periods. The Bills improved to 4-1 without receivers D.J. Moore and Joshua Palmer.

Week 5

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Monday, October 12 | 8:15 PM ET | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Buffalo is a road underdog for the first time this season, priced at +120 on the moneyline against Los Angeles’s -142, with the Rams favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 53.5, tied for the highest on the Week 5 board. The Rams are 2-2 after a 24-20 comeback win at Philadelphia, though defensive tackle Aaron Donald missed Week 4 with back soreness.

The last two MVPs meet on Monday Night Football, and the last time these teams played, a 44-42 Rams win in 2024, Allen became the first player in NFL history with three passing and three rushing touchdowns in a game.

Week 4 Recap

Patriots 29, Bills 26 | Sunday, October 4 | New Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Buffalo’s unbeaten start ended in the final two minutes. Drake Maye hit Efton Chism III for a one-handed, 23-yard touchdown with 1:50 left, and Craig Woodson intercepted Josh Allen on the Bills’ next possession. Allen finished 23-of-33 for 253 yards, a touchdown to Keon Coleman and a rushing score, but Buffalo fell to 3-1 and wide receiver D.J. Moore re-aggravated an AC-joint sprain.

Week 4

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Sunday, October 4 | 1:00 PM ET | New Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Buffalo is favored at home, priced at -290 on the moneyline against New England’s +235, with the Bills favored by 6.5 points and the total set at 48.5. The Patriots arrive off a lopsided 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in which Drake Maye was pressured on nearly 60% of his dropbacks, giving Buffalo’s pass rush a favorable matchup to keep its perfect start alive.

The unbeaten Bills look to stay unblemished against a Patriots team that hasn’t looked the same since losing A.J. Brown to injury.

Week 3 Recap

Bills 24, Chargers 16 | Sunday, September 27 | New Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Buffalo survived a Chargers team that generated five takeaways to move to 3-0, though the win came with plenty to clean up on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles kept it competitive into the fourth quarter, but the Bills’ offense did enough to pull away and stay unbeaten through three weeks.

Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | Sunday, September 27 | 1:00 PM ET | New Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Buffalo is a heavy home favorite, priced at -340 on the moneyline against Los Angeles’s +270, with the Bills favored by 7 points and the total set at 50.5, one of the highest on the Week 3 board. The Chargers arrive 0-2 after a stunning Week 1 upset loss to Arizona and a Week 2 defeat at the hands of the Raiders, while Buffalo has outscored its first two opponents by a combined 15 points.

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in Buffalo’s still-new building, and the line reflects just how much separation there already is between them three weeks in.

Week 2 Recap

Bills 41, Lions 31 | Thursday, September 17 | New Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Josh Allen christened Buffalo’s new stadium with a five-touchdown outing, connecting with Dalton Kincaid and throwing for 34 more before the Lions ever threatened. Detroit’s banged-up offensive line couldn’t hold up against Buffalo’s pass rush, and a rash of Lions penalties turned the game into a track meet the Bills controlled from the second quarter on. Buffalo improved to 2-0, though the win came with a dark cloud: Lions receiver D.J. Moore was hurt in the first half.

​Week 2

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills | Thursday, September 17 | 8:15 PM ET | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Buffalo is favored in the first game at its new Highmark Stadium, priced at -166 on the moneyline against Detroit’s +140, with the Bills favored by 3 and the total set at a Week 2-high 53.5 points. Both teams needed late heroics to escape Week 1 with wins, Detroit in overtime against New Orleans and Buffalo on a last-minute touchdown against Houston, setting up a potential shootout to christen the new building.

Two of the league’s most explosive offenses open Buffalo’s new stadium on Thursday night, and neither defense did much in Week 1 to suggest this one stays low-scoring.

Week 1 Recap

Bills 36, Texans 31 | Sunday, September 13 | Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX

Buffalo trailed for much of the game before Josh Allen found Joshua Palmer for a 34-yard touchdown with 1:36 left, then the defense sealed it when Greg Rousseau strip-sacked C.J. Stroud on the final snap. Allen threw for 334 yards and two scores and ran for two more, finally beating Houston on the road after losing his previous four trips to Reliant Stadium, giving new head coach Joe Brady his first win.

Week 1

Bills at Houston Texans | Sunday, September 13 | 1:00 PM ET | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Buffalo opens as a slight road favorite, priced at -112 on the moneyline against Houston’s -108, with the total set at 45.5 points. The Texans beat the Bills 23-19 the last time these teams met, in Week 12 last season, and head into the rematch fresh off locking up star pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. to a three-year, $150 million extension, the richest non-quarterback deal in NFL history.

A near pick’em number across sportsbooks and prediction markets shows just how evenly these two playoff teams are viewed, making it a strong early measuring stick for Joe Brady’s Bills in his debut as head coach.

Odds to Win Division and Super Bowl

Odds to Win AFC East: -130

Odds to Win Super Bowl: +1000

Predictions

Overall Record: The Bills are projected to finish with an 11-6 record, backed by one of the league’s most consistent quarterbacks and a retooled defense.

Playoff Chances: Among the safest bets in the conference to return to the postseason

Super Bowl Chances: A legitimate contender, though not the outright favorite

Buffalo still has Josh Allen, which alone keeps them in the conversation with any team in the AFC, but the loss of Sean McDermott and a first-time defensive coordinator add real uncertainty to a roster that has come up just short in back-to-back years. Expect the Bills to be in the thick of the AFC East race all season, with a real shot at a deep playoff run if Leonhard’s new-look defense comes together faster than expected.