UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley Fight Card Odds and Pick

Last Updated on August 16, 2023 1:39 pm by Erwin Noguera

The next numbered event from the most famous Octagon in the world is right around the corner when the UFC visits their next stop at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, for a stacked card at UFC 292.

We have one entertaining headliner when the grappling powerhouse and defending bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, faces the freight train of a striking contender coming his way in “Sugar” Sean O’Malley.

Besides the exciting headliner, the Co-main event doesn’t fall behind, as we get the violent champion of the Strawweight division, Weili Zang, making her first defense in her current reign against Amanda Lemos, who is coming up after a hot and quick streak of victories.

We have a total of 12 fights in the card, and a ton of entertaining match-ups in store for all fans.

One of them is the fight between the hardened veteran, Neil Magny, who is facing the undefeated Ian Machado Garry.

Another one to keep a close eye on is the bout between Marlon “El Chito” Vera, who is keeping himself active against Pedro Munhoz, but may be able to use a victory as a statement to call out the winner of the main event.

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There are some gems like the possible barn burner between the former champ Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares, and an interesting clash between Gerald Meerschaert vs. Andre Petroski, and that is if we do not count the two TUF 31 Finals taking place in the card as well.

With a ton to unpack, we have to dive into these stacked 12-match card, as we have to break down the 7 prelims and the 5 main event bouts for all of you fight fans out there.

You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley Fight Card Odds and Pick – Info

When:

Saturday, August 19th, at 6:00 pm ET

Moneyline odds:

Aljamain Sterling -280 / Sean O’Malley +210

Weili Zhang -340 / Amanda Lemos +250

Neil Magny +310 / Ian Machado Garry -440

Marlon Vera -196 / Pedro Munhoz +152

Mario Bautista -245 / Da’Mon Blackshear +185

Chris Weidman +220 / Brad Tavares -295

Gregory Rodrigues -390 / Denis Tiuliulin +280

Kurt Holobaugh +142 / Austin Hubbard -184

Cody Gibson – / Brad Katona –

Gerald Meerschaert +210 / Andre Petroski -280

Andrea Lee +280 / Natália Silva -390

Maryna Moroz +138 / Karine Silva -178

Where can I watch it?

UFC Fight Pass

UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley

Why Bet on Aljamain Sterling?

At this stage, Aljamain Sterling has a claim to being the best bantamweight in MMA history. He’s held his title since 2021, and while he won it under controversial circumstances – via disqualification – he’s since made three straight defenses.

Funk Master turned back the challenge of Petr Yan, stopped T.J. Dillashaw, and edged out Henry Cejudo earlier this year. Add in his previous wins over Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz, and Renan Barao, and you can’t argue with his resume.

Why Bet on Sean O’Malley?

Sugar is a passable grappler, but he lives and breathes for his striking game. O’Malley not only packs serious knockout power and killer instinct, but his grasp of range and distance is phenomenal. Coupled in with the fact that at 5’11”, he’s tall for a 135lber, it’s easy to see why he’s had so much success.

The only question mark over O’Malley, realistically, is his lack of fights against top competition. Sugar edged out Yan last year in a thriller, but largely due to the UFC viewing him as a potential superstar, he’s been babied somewhat, fighting lower-level foes or aging veterans like Thomas Almeida and Eddie Wineland, rather than top-ranked fighters.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley Betting Analysis:

Sterling has no weaknesses. His cardio is phenomenal, he’s an unbelievable wrestler who can both control and submit his foes and his striking, while not concussive, is explosive and effective. Quite why he hasn’t earned more respect remains a bit of a mystery, to be honest.

O’Malley’s best path to win would be to block Sterling’s takedowns and snipe at him from range, looking for a knockout. Unfortunately for Sugar, it’s not that simple. Not only is the Funk Master deceptively fast in terms of getting inside an opponent to drag them down, but he’s also not exactly a poor striker in his own right. More to the point, he doesn’t have a bad chin by any means. He’s only been knocked out twice, once by Yan’s illegal knee and once by Marlon Moraes.

The latter knockout saw Funk Master dive head-first into the Brazilian’s knee as Magic threw a kick. It was a once-in-a-lifetime shot.

On the ground, meanwhile, the bout is likely to be a mismatch of sorts. If Sterling takes the back of an opponent, the fight is usually over, and while O’Malley isn’t a white belt, he wouldn’t be considered on the same level as Cejudo, Barao, or Augusto Mendes, all of whom were whitewashed by the Funk Master.

If O’Malley can catch Sterling cold, he can win this fight, but the chances of him doing that before his foe grabs him seem slim.

The pick, therefore, is Sterling via submission, simple as that.

UFC 292: Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos

Why Bet on Weili Zhang?

After losing to Rose Namajunas in 2021, Zhang has gone 2-0 with back-to-back wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza.

She defeated Jedrzejczyk with a nasty spinning back fist that got her Performance of the Night honors before showing off her excellent grappling skills by submitting Esparza to capture a title again in the UFC.

Why Bet on Amanda Lemos?

In her most recent fight, Lemos demolished Marina Rodriguez in a TKO victory in November 2022. Before that, she submitted Michelle Waterson-Gomez via a Guillotine choke. At 36 years old, Lemos must be feeling that this could be her last shot at an MMA title.

The will is there for Lemos, who has an 8-1 knockout record and a 3-1 submission slate.

Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos Betting Analysis:

Lemos is a fantastic striker with many other powerful weapons in her arsenal, but she probably isn’t on the same level as Weili. The thing is that she’s only fought three ranked opponents so far.

Meanwhile, the reigning champ has only fought ranked opponents since 2018. The paper goes on the current champion’s side, but it is the quality of violence that she has shown in her fights that we can hardly see Lemos being able to overcome.

UFC 292: Neil Magny vs. Ian Machado Garry

Why Bet on Neil Magny?

Neil Magny is a seasoned UFC ver, a name synonymous with experience and resilience in the UFC octagon after picking up career wins over Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit, and most recently Philip Rowe.

Magny now steps up on short notice to take on the undefeated Ian Garry.

Why Bet on Ian Machado Garry?

Moving onto “The Future” Ian Garry, the undefeated prospect brings a youthful energy and an unyielding hunger to prove himself against a seasoned contender.

Garry’s striking game is nothing short of impressive, averaging a remarkable 6.85 significant strikes landed per minute.

Neil Magny vs. Ian Machado Garry Betting Analysis:

The alteration to this bout has now pitted Ian Garry against arguably the more challenging of the two welterweights. If Magny can utilize his grappling prowess to control the fight and neutralize his striking power, he could sway the momentum in his favor.

Magny’s advantage lies in his experience, versatility, and ability to mix striking with grappling. He can exploit Garry’s relative inexperience by taking the fight to the ground, where his takedowns and submission skills could shine.

However, Garry’s speed and unpredictable attacks could prove to be a challenge that Magny needs to navigate carefully. Ian Garry’s lack of understanding of his timing and explosive striking demands respect, and if he can control the distance and impose his striking pace, he will likely overwhelm Magny with volume and precision.

UFC 292: Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

Why Bet on Marlon Vera?

Chito Vera is one of the most-liked bantamweight fighters on the UFC roster. He is an Ecuadorian fighter with a great story of his journey to becoming one of the most successful fighters in the world.

He has a professional MMA record of 20-8 with eight TKO/KOs and eight submissions at the age of 30, including being the only one to finish the current title contender, Sean O’Malley.

Why Bet on Pedro Munhoz?

Munhoz is one of the most consistent bantamweights in the UFC. He has a professional record of 20-7, with five TKO/KOs and eight submissions under his belt.

The Brazilian fights with a lot of heart and power, but besides his NC against Sean O’Malley recently, he has 2 wins and 4 losses in his last 7 matches.

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz Betting Analysis:

This match was originally set for Marlon Vera to fight Henry Cejudo, but Cejudo’s injury had him pulling out of the clash. The UFC had to look around to keep Marlon active on the card, but even though Munhoz is an active fighter, it doesn’t look like he will be able to prevent Marlon from getting back into the winning column.

We expect Chito to get his hand raised and call out the main event winner.

UFC 292: Mario Bautista vs. Da’Mon Blackshear

Why Bet on Mario Bautista?

Mario Bautista is coming off a great streak, having 4 straight victories and a full camp to prepare for his former opponent, he was starting to worry about having to sit out from the card for a moment.

He comes in eager to continue his momentum, and his submission game is likely to be his go-to asset for this fight.

Why Bet on Da’Mon Blackshear?

Da´mon Blackshear took a victory this last weekend, making it look easy with a Twister in before the first 4 minutes of the fight. It was such a clean victory that he was cleared to come and save this fight from being scrapped.

He is a strong submission fighter, with 9 subs, 3 KOs, and 3 decisions, so we know what he likes to do once he gets on the cage.

Mario Bautista vs. Da’Mon Blackshear Betting Analysis:

In any other situation, we would give a lot more credit to Blackshear for the quick turn-around, but this one is kind of too quick, as he just went through one weight cut, and if you ask a fighter, a weight cut can wear you down worse than a fight, so having to do two in quick succession is never a good idea.

He might be the most dangerous submission fighter out of the two, but things may not look so good in this fight as they did on his impressive finish last time around. We expect a contested start to the match only for Blackshear to slowly wear down and fall into Bautista’s game.

UFC 292: Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares

Why Bet on Chris Weidman?

Once an undefeated, seemingly unimpeachable champion, Chris Weidman (15-6) sits at 2-6 since smashing Vitor Belfort in his third title defense. His most recent effort — a rematch with Uriah Hall more than a decade in the making — saw Weidman break his leg just 17 seconds into the first round.

This marks his first mixed martial arts (MMA) bout in nearly 28 months for “The All-American.”

Why Bet on Brad Tavares?

Tavares followed his 3-1 The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 11 run with a 7-1 UFC start, then bounced back from a 1-3 skid by winning four straight. He enters the cage this Saturday having lost four of his last six, including a knockout loss to Bruno Silva in April 2023.

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares Betting Analysis:

On the bright side, we don’t see Weidman getting spectacularly injured in this match, which has become an increasingly common occurrence. That said, we don’t see him winning, either. Tavares excels at peppering opponents with jabs and leg kicks while shutting down their takedowns.

And while a fully intact Weidman would have been able to outmaneuver him and get his wrestling going anyway, we don’t trust this surgically repaired version to do so. At this point in the former’s career, Tavares is a headache waiting to happen. Weidman doesn’t hit hard enough to crack the Brazilian man’s shaky chin and he’s likely too slow at this point to deal with Tavares’ meat-and-potatoes offense.

In the end, Tavares pot-shots his way to another decision victory.

UFC 292: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Why Bet on Gregory Rodrigues?

Despite falling to Jordan Williams on Contender Series, Gregory Rodrigues (13-5) racked up four wins and three post-fight bonuses in his first five UFC bouts.

Then came late replacement Bruno Ferreira, who shocked “Robocop” with a one-punch knockout in Jan. 2023.

Why Bet on Denis Tiuliulin?

Tiuliulin’s 2022 UFC debut saw him step up on short notice to face Aliaskhab Khizriev, who forced him to tap midway through the second round.

Though he bounced back with a knockout of Jamie Pickett, his grappling failed him once again when Jun Yong Park finished him via a rear-naked choke.

All but one of his wins have come via knockout.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin Betting Analysis:

As with the Ferreira fight, Rodrigues has an incredibly easy and obvious way to win this fight. Tiuliulin simply does not have Octagon-worthy wrestling; if “Robocop” commits any effort toward bringing it to the mat, it’ll pay off.

The issue is that Rodrigues just loves to slug it out — and though that works out for him more often than not — Tiuliulin’s got enough pop to turn his lights out. Even with that risk, it’s hard to pick against Rodrigues here. He outright laps Tiuliulin on the ground and likely wins the standup more often than not thanks to his horrific power.

So long as he doesn’t get too sloppy, he should bulldoze Tiuliulin wherever the fight goes.

TUF 31: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Austin Hubbard

Why Bet on Kurt Holobaugh?

Though he found consistent success in promotions like Titan FC, Kurt Holobaugh (19-7) struggled to secure victory in the Octagon, going winless (0-4) in two separate stints. That didn’t stop him from stealing the show on TUF 31, submitting Lee Hammond and overpowering Jason Knight in the consensus “Fight of the Season.”

His professional finishes are split 9:7 between submissions and knockouts.

Why Bet on Austin Hubbard?

A decision loss to Vinc Pichel ended Austin Hubbard’s (15-6) Octagon run at 3-4, leaving him to rebuild with a pair of wins on the regional circuit.

His efforts earned him a spot on TUF 31, where he punched his ticket to the finals with decisions over Aaron McKenzie and Roosevelt Roberts.

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Austin Hubbard Betting Analysis:

Hubbard’s Kryptonite is a superior wrestler. He’s durable, persistent, and a solid offensive grappler in his own right, but he’s been overpowered on multiple occasions. Luckily for him, he won’t have to worry about that here — Holobaugh’s best work came at 145 pounds and he’s always struggled with capable takedown artists.

Though Holobaugh is always dangerous and difficult to put away, we don’t see him swarming his way past Hubbard, especially not when Hubbard can neutralize his momentum with wrestling. The latter is not shopworn nor undersized like Jason Knight; therefore, he’ll take Holobaugh’s best shot and power through to grind his way to TUF victory.

TUF 31: Cody Gibson vs. Brad Katona

Why Bet on Cody Gibson?

Cody is a seasoned fighter with a record of 19-8, including a 1 wins and 3 losses run on a previous UFC run.

He, however, managed to pull through the Bantamweight bracket in the TUF 31 house even after sustaining a knee injury that had stopped him from going all out on training and sparring.

He last saw the UFC octagon in 2015, but after a first-round submission over Rico DiSciullo, he is taking his shot to win the TUF Finale.

Why Bet on Brad Katona?

Brad Katona is another seasoned veteran, and he even is the TUF 27 winner. His first UFC Run was not as fruition, as he only got a 2 wins streak and then a 2 losses streak before he was cut out of the promotion.

It was during his clash with Timur Valiev that he proved that he could go to war, as both fighters had moments, with Katona landing some heavy punches on counterstrikes while Valiev continually attacked Katona’s legs and landed takedowns just before the bell.

It was a split decision that gave him the shot, but he now looks to become the first 2-time TUF winner.

Cody Gibson vs. Brad Katona Betting Analysis:

This one prediction is coming in hot, as the last episode of TUF aired and there was barely any time for the odds to be set.

But there are a lot of factors to take into consideration, one of them, being Cody Gibson’s hurt leg, which until this point didn’t slow him down from getting to the finals.

There is one other thing that has to be pointed out, and it is the bad blood between the two fighters, as things are heated, and they want to hurt each other badly.

We are, however, expecting Gibson to have a bigger desire to win and damage his opponent, and expect him not to play around on his way to a finish, and ruin the opportunity for Katona to make history.

UFC 292: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Andre Petroski

Why Bet on Gerald Meerschaert?

Reeling from losses in five of his previous seven fights, Gerald Meerschaert (35-16) clawed his way back into contention with four stoppage wins in his next five bouts. This set up a clash with Contender Series standout, Joe Pyfer, who floored “GM3” midway through the first.

His 33 professional finishes include 27 via submission.

Why Bet on Andre Petroski?

Andre Petroski (9-1) — an early favorite on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 — saw his run stopped in the semifinals by Bryan Battle’s ninja choke. He’s been more successful in the Octagon itself, scoring four dominant victories that include a 76-second finish of Nick Maximov.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Andre Petroski Betting Analysis:

On paper, this is all Petroski. We just watched Meerschaert get destroyed by a heavy-handed wrestler; that, combined with his history of slow starts, makes it hard to see him lasting past the first round.

Even if he does somehow reclaim his former striking form, which was a nightmare of attrition, the eight combined takedowns he surrendered to Dustin Stoltzfus and Krzysztof Jotko give Petroski an obvious Plan B.

We get that you can never count out Meerschaert, but this time, we just might. Indeed, Petroski blows him up with power punches inside three minutes.

UFC 292: Andrea Lee vs. Natália Silva

Why Bet on Andrea Lee?

Andrea Lee (13-7) extended her win streak to seven with three consecutive UFC victories out of the gate. She’s since lost five of seven, three of those via split decision, while dominating Antonina Shevchenko and Cynthia Calvillo along the way.

“KGB” will have two inches of height and 4.5 inches of reach on Natalia Silva (15-5-1).

Why Bet on Natália Silva?

Silva parlayed a six-fight win streak and the Jungle Fight Flyweight title into a UFC contract, only to spend 2.5 years on the sidelines. She’s made up for lost time by winning all three of her Octagon bouts and taking home a post-fight bonus for her spinning back kick knockout of Tereza Bleda.

She’s ended 12 bouts inside the distance, five of them via submission.

Andrea Lee vs. Natália Silva Betting Analysis:

Even without falling into the hype behind her opponent, it is hard to see Lee winning this one. Though Lee is the strongest hitter Silva has faced thus far in the Octagon, Silva’s speed and power make her unquestionably the more fearsome of the two on the feet.

Plus, Lee has struggled to consistently out-wrestle her UFC opponents, and the way Silva shut down Tereza Bleda’s grappling suggests that that won’t change here.

We want to see Silva against a high-level, well-rounded fighter before fully committing to her hype train, but trust her to outclass an opponent of Lee’s caliber. In the end, Silva out-strikes Lee to a wide decision victory.

UFC 292: Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva

Why Bet on Maryna Moroz?

Maryna Moroz (11-2) put a winless (0-2) skid behind her to win three straight, one of them over current Bantamweight contender, Mayra Bueno Silva. She then battled fellow veteran, Jennifer Maia, losing a wide unanimous decision in Nov. 2022.

Why Bet on Karine Silva?

Karine Silva (16-4) lived up to her “Killer” nickname on Contender Series with a come-from-behind guillotine finish of Yan Qihui. She has been similarly effective in the Octagon, dispatching Poliana Botelho and Ketlen Souza in less than one round apiece.

Her 16 wins, split evenly between knockouts and submissions, have all come in less than two rounds.

Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva Betting Analysis:

Though she’s proven unable to get over the hump at either 115 or 125 pounds, Moroz has a track record of derailing prospects. She’s got the skills to do so here because Silva is unproven past the first round and seemingly the lesser kickboxer.

That said, Moroz’s inability to maintain distance against the shorter Maia should give Silva plenty of chances to tie up and power through “The Iron Lady’s” historically questionable takedown defense. Our pick is on the hard-to-finish Moroz.