UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Fight Card Odds and Picks

We are back into the numbered events for the UFC, and we are bound to enjoy our trip to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as we get not only one but two title fights as main and co-main events for this one.

The Main event fight sees an exciting clash between the current lightweight Champion, Ilia Topuria, who is taking on the Submission specialist Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira in a fight that a lot of fans seem to be more than excited about.

The co-main event sees Alexandre Pantoja trying to chain another successful title defense into his reign as he faces Kai Kara-France for the Flyweight title.

Along with those two heavy hitters, we also get possible title eliminator clashes for both divisions in the main card, along with a Bantamweight clash between Payton Talbot and Felipe Lima.

With 7 Prelims to kick things off, we are excited to see and expect that this is going to be an interesting and entertaining night for all fight fans.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Fight Card Odds and Info

UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

Why Bet on Ilia Topuria?

Topuria is coming off two back-to-back KO wins over the Featherweight division’s best fighters: Volkanovski and Holloway. With Holloway being knocked out for the first time in his career and having a relatively clean fight and performance by El Matador.

Topuria is going to demolish Oliveira on the feet. Oliveira has never been a fantastic boxer. He’s been violent and dangerous to strike with butstill not as clean a boxer as Topuria. We believe that we are in for a brilliant showcase by Topuria.

In terms of the grappling threat that could certainly catch Topuria, we believe that in the first two or three rounds, there is a high chance of Oliveira landing a guillotine attack as he is the taller fighter and has a good guillotine and choke game. However, Topuria should realize the threat and avoid any clinch situation that may lead to that submission.

Another thing that makes Topuria such a difficult fighter to deal with is he doesn’t just target the head. He goes for the body, then the head, or the head, and then the body. While that sounds simplistic and basic, it’s rare to see body work mixed in with the combinations in the UFC, as most combinations we see are head-hunting ones.

Either way, we expect Topuria to look dominant on the feet and have the obvious speed advantage.

Why Bet on Charles Oliveira?

Oliveira has never really been a highlight fighter. While his reign as a champion was nice since he is a UFC veteran, we do not think he will make this a competitive fight against Topuria apart from a few fiery moments in which he lands a fantastic knee up the middle or an uppercut, with the latter being the primary strike that we see landing since Topuria does drop his stance when he strikes sometimes.

Oliveira’s submissions are going to be a highlight during this fight because whilst his striking has always been rather decent, it’s been his submissions that stood out as he is one of the best grapplers in the division, so if Topuria does go for a takedown to change things up a bit, he is at a high risk of getting caught in a submission, especially a guillotine choke as that’s usually Oliveira’s go to defensive submission.

Final Betting Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

If Oliveira proves unable to secure a submission, he will likely find himself in a vulnerable position, as he is a typical Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) fighter in this sense. We believe that Topuria will be well-prepared to mitigate the submission threats for the most part, especially when it comes to quick guillotines and similar moves.

And every minute standing makes Topuria more and more dangerous here, so our pick is placed on the champion to defend his title.

UFC 317: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

Why Bet on Alexandre Pantoja?

Pantoja is a champion who has been brilliant during his time as a champion, but we can’t ignore the close calls he had.

Pantoja is an incredibly active fighter. He maintains a high pace throughout all five rounds, constantly pressuring his opponent both on the feet and on the ground. He is a relentless competitor, willing to push himself and his opponent to the limit for the entire 25 minutes of the fight.

Why Bet on Kai Kara-France?

Kara-France is a fascinating case for being a contender because he was pretty inactive until his last win against Erceg.

Kara-France is a fantastic kickboxer who is quick and powerful in short, sporadic moments, but during moments of calm, he tends to take a few too many photos. He has a high guard and a solid stance but ultimately can sometimes be a bit too much like a statue.

The other problem that we see Kara-France walking into is being too much on the back foot, which isn’t going to be a great thing since Pantoja will take a mile if you give him an inch.

KKF will have a striking advantage, and his low stance could help him massively to defend takedowns, but Pantoja has a way of making it difficult for his opponents to keep up.

Final Betting Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

Pantoja will likely use his five-round experience and expertise to rush forward and be ultra-aggressive, looking to shut down the offensive output of KKF. Now, we like to think of Pantoja as a little bit of a Merab kind of wrestler. He will always go for takedowns, and while KKF does have great takedown defense, we don’t believe that he has faced anyone like Pantoja before.

UFC 317: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

Why Bet on Brandon Royval?

Royval is quite experienced in five-round battles against some of the biggest names in the division, including Taira, Moreno, and Pantoja. Although he has performed exceptionally well in those fights, we believe there are some caveats to consider.

Royval has a 3-inch reach advantage, which will be pivotal in dealing with Van’s incredibly fast and accurate blitzes. The problem that we have with Royval is that whilst he’s good at keeping his opponent at the end of his jabs and straights, he has issues with dealing with the right hook and right overhand, and that’s predominantly because he is a bladed stance fighter, so that right hook is not his best friend, but to meet with that is the lead jab and the left knee, those are going to be the absolute perfect counters to Van’s blitzes.

We are highly intrigued, however, by what he has in store as he prepares for Manel Kape, and we know that Kape is a world-beater and a future champion, so any improvement Royval has made in his camp will likely show during this fight against Van.

Why Bet on Joshua Van?

Van is coming off a beautifully fought win against Bruno Silva, and it was barely a competitive fight as Van was ahead of Silva by miles, faster on the feet, andquick with the counters and angle changes.

The main concern for Van here is the back-to-back weight cuts as well as the fairly large jump-up in competition, so this is a make-it-or-break-it moment for Van.

Final Betting Analysis: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

In terms of technique, we expect Van to be a much faster boxer than Royval is used to, so there will be moments that Royval gets pieced up on the feet, but again, that left knee up the middle or even left head kick is going to be a massive problem for Van. We believe that if Royval were to get a KO, it would stem from those two strikes, the knee or the kick.

We will get the Van train for this one and believe he will make the most out of the jump in competition.

UFC 317: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Why Bet on Beneil Dariush?

Despite suffering back-to-back first-round KO losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, Beneil Dariush remains a powerful and well-rounded fighter.

His offensive wrestling—averaging 1.90 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 34% success rate—and strong takedown defense (80%) give him a clear edge in grappling exchanges. Since Moicano is notorious for not doing well with his counter-wrestling, there will be a degree of success for Dariush, especially early on.

Crucially, many of his defeats came from striking power, but Moicano does not possess elite knockout power. If Dariush can dictate the fight’s rhythm by blending his crisp boxing with takedowns, he can control the action and secure a decision victory.

Why Bet on Renato Moicano?

There is one clear advantage in this fight for Moicano, and that’s the ground and pound. However, for that to happen, he needs to crack the chin of Dariush, and we are not sure if that could happen.

Moicano has great BJJ, but again, so does Dariush. The real dividing factor in this fight will be during the stand-up and the non-submission attacks on the ground.

On the feet, Moicano’s strikes are primarily standard short boxing combinations, one-twos down the line, and the occasional leg kick.

Final Betting Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

If Dariush takes the role of aggressor on the feet, we are confident that Moicano will fall behind significantly in the striking statistics. The stand-up exchanges and the outcome of those moments will largely depend on who presses the action, and we believe Dariush is more likely to move forward and dictate the pace.

However, one of Moicano’s greatest strengths is his incredible level change speed. He is exceptionally quick at getting to the hips and shooting for takedowns. It will be interesting to see if Dariush can anticipate this, meet him at the level change, secure under hooks, and perhaps even reverse the position.

In the end, Moicano has the edge and is likely to come out with the win, but we expect this to be a very competitive and intriguing fight.

UFC 317: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

Why Bet on Payton Talbott?

Talbott is, unfortunately, coming off a tough loss to Raoni Barcelos, a fight where he couldn’t showcase his usual striking skills due to Barcelos’ relentless wrestling pressure. However, what stood out was how Talbott gradually adapted in the second and third rounds, finding moments to counter effectively despite the difficult matchup.

Expect sharp boxing from Talbott;he has always had excellent range management and the incredible ability to throw unreadable shots, no load up, just a strike down the line with his hands low, sharp, and accurate with a lot of flair and confidence, that’s a dangerous combination for anystriker.

Why Bet on Felipe Lima?

Lima is coming off back-to-back wins in the UFC over Muhammad Naimov and Miles Johns, and he looked impeccable as a prospect.

When it comes to his boxing and overall striking acumen, Lima has all the tools you’d want in a fighter on the feet. Whether it’s spinning attacks, lead obliques, leg kicks, or high-volume boxing combinations, he is highly capable of mixing it up and keeping his opponent guessing. What truly stands out is his defensive awareness. When facing incoming strikes, Lima not only shells up effectively but also angles off and moves off the center line, making himself a difficult target to track.

While we haven’t yet seen much of his offensive wrestling, we believe Lima may look to incorporate it here—not necessarily to dominate in that area, but to force Talbott to deal with multiple threats at once.

Final Betting Analysis: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

Lima is noticeably more dynamic on the feet compared to Talbott, and he will have a clear speed advantage, which we believe could play a significant role in this matchup. His ability to mix in wrestling effectively will force Talbott to deal with multiple threats at once, making Lima’s approach even more difficult to handle.

While we expect Talbott to showcase some new tools in this fight, we are not convinced it will be enough, as Lima appears well-rounded both on the feet and on the ground.

UFC 317: Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Why Bet on Jack Hermansson?

Hermansson is undoubtedly approaching the twilight of his career, but one thing remains clear—he is an intelligent and strategic fighter.

We don’t expect him to engage in the kind of exchanges that favor Rodrigues. Instead, Hermansson is likely to rely on a disciplined stick-and-move approach designed to frustrate Rodrigues and limit his opportunities to land significant shots. Rodrigues, for all his power, brings a fairly predictable style: steady forward pressure and devastating punching power, but little else that’s new or particularly creative. Hermansson has faced and successfully neutralized similar threats before—fighters like Pyfer and Shahbazyan—and we believe he is fully capable of doing so again.

Why Bet on Gregory Rodrigues?

Rodrigues is a true menace inside the Octagon, with formidable power and an imposing presence as he walks down his opponents. His sheer force can be overwhelming, but what holds him back is his limited use of movement to set up those power shots. Rather than creating angles or openings, Rodrigues often relies on simply marching forward and throwing strikes without much variation or setup. If he does connect cleanly, there’s no doubt he has the power to stop Hermansson. However, given the likely dynamics of this matchup, we see that scenario as less probable.

Final Betting Analysis: Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Hermansson’s best window to incorporate his grappling and wrestling might come in the final round, where securing a takedown could help seal the fight on the scorecards without risking unnecessary energy expenditure early on. Attempting to wrestle in the later stages provides a safer path to solidifying points, whereas failed early takedowns could drain his gas tank. We believe Hermansson’s experience, fight IQ, and ability to implement a smart game plan will see him through to a decision victory.

UFC 317: Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado

Why Bet on Hyder Amil?

Amil is the definition of relentless pressure, an all-gas-no-brakes fighter who, despite being on the older side, competes with incredible pace and aggression. Every strike he throws comes with high volume, and he has built a reputation for wearing down his opponents with sustained offense.

His forward pressure is intense, and while his striking defense leaves much to be desired, his ability to absorb shots and fire back makes him dangerous in exchanges. The downside, of course, is that he is highly hittable. His offensive stance and tendency to stand square in the pocket make him susceptible to counters. However, his four-strike combinations, sharp right hooks, and timely takedowns have been critical components of his success so far.

Why Bet on Jose Delgado?

Delgado enters this bout fresh off an impressive knockout win over Connor Matthews, where he showcased precise and calculated striking. He is a patient and methodical fighter, preferring quality over quantity. Rather than overwhelming opponents with volume, Delgado focuses on well-timed, well-set-up strikes, making him a dangerous counterstriker when he finds his openings.

Final Betting Analysis: Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado

Given Amil’s relentless pace and pressure, it’s likely that Delgado will be forced onto the back foot for much of the fight. While Delgado’s knockout of Matthews was impressive, we’re not convinced that he can match the sheer intensity and volume that Amil brings. If Amil can maintain his usual tempo, he should be able to overwhelm Delgado and control the action throughout the fight.

UFC 317: Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez

Why Bet on Viviane Araujo?

Araujo may be approaching the later stages of her career, but she remains a highly competitive and dangerous fighter. Her recent victory over Karine Silva, a top prospect in the division, shows that she still has the skills to challenge high-level opponents.

Araujo is a well-rounded athlete with excellent takedown defense and a versatile striking arsenal that allows her to inflict damage from various ranges. On the ground, she is an accomplished grappler with black belts in both Luta livre and Brazilian Jiu-jitsu. This expertise could prove crucial, as it not only gives her submission threats from her back if taken down but also provides her with the tools to reverse positions and neutralize Cortez’s wrestling-based offense.

Why Bet on Tracy Cortez?

Cortez enters this bout following surgery of an undisclosed nature, something that could significantly impact her performance. Regardless of the specifics, it often means extended time away from full training, potential complications during camp, and setbacks that affect preparation. Cortez’s style is highly one-dimensional; she is a pure wrestler who thrives on controlling her opponents on the mat. If she can’t impose her wrestling, she tends to struggle on the feet, often throwing ineffective strikes and failing to connect cleanly. Given these concerns, especially regarding her physical readiness, there are legitimate questions about how prepared she is for this challenge.

Final Betting Analysis: Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez

The clearest path to victory for Araujo is to keep the fight standing, where she can utilize her striking to control the action. While Araujo isn’t an elite kickboxer, she is capable of doing damage both at range and in the clinch. The key will be avoiding Cortez’s takedowns because if she ends up on her back, Cortez could control her and grind out rounds. Considering Cortez’s surgery and the questions surrounding her condition, this feels like Araujo’s fight to lose.

UFC 317: Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Why Bet on Terrance McKinney?

McKinney is a first-round finisher. He can look both good and ugly in the first round, depending on if he is winning that round. He has tremendous knockout power and a lot of explosive aggression, but we remain skeptical of his ability to fight effectively in the second and third rounds.

Until proven otherwise, we think that McKinney will fade quickly in the second and third rounds.

However, we want to highlight that a first-round KO win for McKinney is always on the table.

Why Bet on Viacheslav Borshchev?

Borshchev is a fantastic kickboxer who, despite having the reach disadvantage, has the clean strikes that can disrupt the pattern and rhythm of McKinney as long as he remains defensively sound.

Borshchev is reasonably good at shelling up and crowding the punches by ducking and shelling at the same time, but that’s if he sees punches coming because McKinney isn’t your typical boxer; he’s unorthodox, wacky, powerful, and just a force to be reckoned with in that first round.

Either Borshchev is going to pull McKinney into a war in the first round, which will further sap the cardio of McKinney, or McKinney is going to find a takedown and use his wrestling to hunt for a submission or a ground-and-pound finish.

Either way, Borshchev, on the feet, should be able to match the tenacity and ferocious power of McKinney at the risk of his chin being tapped. Now, that’s one thing that we think we’re all forgetting. Borshchev’s chin isn’t that bad; he’s only been dropped a couple of times in his UFC career, and we feel like McKinney is a lot more susceptible to big strikes than Borshchev is.

Final Betting Analysis: Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

McKinney’s reach advantage helps him greatly in this fight, but it all still circles back to his inability to fight to a competitive degree in the second round. We cannot help but see Borshchev do anything he can to weather that first-round storm only to survive and thrive in the second and lock in on the third.

UFC 317: Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith

Why Bet on Niko Price?

In terms of how Price fights, we suspect that he’s going to be a bit cautious on the feet, especially since he’s facing a much faster and cleaner striker in Smith, but with that 4-inch reach advantage, we also think that Price’s main plan for this fight is to stick and move to keep Smith from hitting those counters.

Price is a pretty bad striker, and he will get outstruck early on in this fight against Smith. His opponent is a young and confident fighter who is riding the momentum of his first-round knockout debut, so he is likely to want to replicate that same level of performance and dominance.

Why Bet on Jacobe Smith?

Smith is a highly skilled and well-rounded fighter, making him one of the rare prospects that fans are eager to watch. While it’s somewhat disappointing that he is facing a faded Price, we don’t expect Smith to encounter much trouble in this matchup. His power, speed, agility, and wrestling abilities will likely pose significant challenges for Price. It’s quite possible that we could see another knockout finish, whether through ground and pound or a clean KO in the first round, especially since Price tends to be a slow and lumbering fighter.

We’re likely to see the wrestling of Smith because we didn’t get a chance to see that last time out since he blasted his way through Parsons, so keep an eye out for quick doubleleg takedowns, potentially huge slams, a rush for a mounted position and some savage ground and pound.

Final Betting Analysis: Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith

Price is a gritty veteran, and whilst he does have a chance to win this fight if he survives the storm and maybe fights a fatigued Smith, we think he can maybe turn it around, but ultimately, the odds make a little bit of sense here, and we should be seeing Smith take the victory without too many issues.

UFC 317: Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines

Why Bet on Jhonata Diniz?

Diniz is one of those fighters who, in this weight class, is silently making their way through the division. However, by no means he’s a world beater, but he brings to the table sharp striking, fantastic kickboxing, and well-rounded pace on the feet.

Diniz is relatively battle-tested, and even though he’s coming off a loss against a gritty veteran like Tybura, we do think that he is going to look like the dominant fighter on the feet.

Expect a head-kick attempt early from Diniz as he is very quick with throwing that, but also expect any punch that might land against Hines to make Hines panic wrestle or crumble.

Diniz is somewhat comfortable on the ground. Usually, he prefers to strike on the feet, but he can grapple and perhaps look for a reverse or a stand-up.

Why Bet on Alvin Hines?

Hines is certainly a person that can have the ability to fight. Hines is nothing but muscle and power, but his inability to look at least mildly athletic is a major problem that raises all the red flags for us.

Outside of the fact that Hines marches relatively slowly towards his opponents, throwing defense out the window, we have to treat Hines as any other debutant, with a curious eye.

Final Betting Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines

Hines is going to be a massive lumbering target for Diniz’s strikes. We have noticed that Hines often gets hit hard because he tends to walk toward his opponent without much urgency to defend himself. We believe that early in the fight, Diniz will land some precise strikes that could seriously challenge “Goozie’s” chin, possibly even leading to a knockout.

UFC 317: Jackson McVey vs. Christopher Ewer

Why Bet on Jackson McVey?

While there is much unknown about this fight, one thing is certain, and that is McVey’s finishing ability.

Neither of these prospects has suffered a loss in their respective regional careers, but McVey’s has been more dominant on his path.

Why Bet on Christopher Ewer?

Both are debutants, and this match was set up at the last second, but we believe Ewer’s experience in later rounds may allow him to drag McVey into deep waters as the fight goes on.

Final Betting Analysis: Jackson McVey vs. Christopher Ewer

The most likely outcome in this clash seems to be that McVey won’t let the fight get to the mat for Ewer. He’ll try to make it difficult and will get an early KO.

Topuria vs. Oliveira Betting Pick: Ilia Topuria

Pantoja vs. Kara-France Betting Pick: Alexandre Pantoja

Royval vs. Van Betting Pick: Joshua Van

Dariush vs. Moicano Betting Pick: Renato Moicano

Talbott vs. Lima Betting Pick: Felipe Lima

Hermansson vs. Rodrigues Betting Pick: Jack Hermansson

Amil vs. Delgado Betting Pick: Hyder Amil

Araujo vs. Cortez Betting Pick: Viviane Araujo

McKinney vs. Borshchev Betting Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev

Price vs. Smith Betting Pick: Jacobe Smith

Diniz vs. Hines Betting Pick: Jhonata Diniz

McVey vs. Ewer Betting Pick: Jackson McVey