UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Fight Card Odds and Picks

This weekend, the UFC is out of its regular spots, and we are getting a nice treat as we take the trip to Baku, Azerbaijan, for the upcoming UFC fight night.

Our main event for the night is a bout that had been rescheduled multiple times due to Hill’s health. However, we are still getting an interesting bout as Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. face off in the main event of the night for what could be a Light-heavyweight barnburner.

Rafael Fiziev takes on the rising contender Ignacio Bahamondes in the co-main event and sees it as a dangerous, tight battle when it comes to the odds.

We have an interesting fight card, with 12 fights to go through and various names trying to push higher into the division.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

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UFC Fight Night: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Why Bet on Jamahal Hill?

Hill has been coming off back-to-back losses against two heavy hitting Light Heavyweights Pereira and Prochazka, and it seems like he can’t catch a break because even after that loss against Prochazka, he had niggling leg injuries which flared up earlier this year, which then led to a cancellation and a rescheduling of this bout.

Hill is a relatively good counterpuncher; his right hook is brilliant and something that could catch Rountree Jr. by surprise. However, he doesn’t exit the angle that quickly, so he’ll still be in the range for any linear punches that Rountree Jr uses.

While we will state clearly that the right hook will be a perfect counter to what Rountree Jr throws, we believe that there will be a big enough speed differential to still catch Hill despite landing counters.

Body kicks are also on the menu for Hill, and that could be effective, considering that Rountree’s entire arsenal of strikes comes from explosive output, which isn’t efficient in a five-round bout.

Why Bet on Khalil Rountree Jr.?

Rountree Jr. has earned the respect of absolutely everyone after his war against Pereira. His early round success was fantastic and showed that he could be a sharp boxer, but most of his strikes are Muay Thai boxing combinations and not traditional boxing combinations, and you can tell he used Muay Thai boxing because he led with the same kind of combination, straight lead hook followed by a nasty left straight, those are the basic building blocks for his boxing combinations, and often he builds upon it as the rounds go by.

Rountree doesn’t have five rounds of cardio; you will very much see him deteriorate rapidly from the fourth round onwards due to the fact that the only way he strikes is with sheer force and power, nothing but explosive attacks, and unless he has trained to slow down and take his time, we don’t expect him to do all that well in the main event rounds.

Final Betting Analysis: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

There is a high likelihood that Roundtree Jr. will thrive in the first three rounds with his explosive output; he will likely catch Hill off guard here and there and perhaps wobble him, as Hill does not have the most durable chin.

The finishing sequence here that will stem from Rountree is likely going to be in those explosive blitzes where he lands that one-two down the line, followed by maybe another hunting right hook.

UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Why Bet on Rafael Fiziev?

It’s pretty disheartening to see Fiziev on a losing streak. However, if you look at his last two losses against Gaethje and how competitive it was, you cannot doubt him for his durability and his ability to fight at a very, very high level.

Bahamondes has a high finish rate, but we don’t think he can finish someone like Fiziev, who is quite defensively sound. Now, Bahamondes is indeed a tricky fighter to deal with, and with his incredibly unique height and reach advantage, we think Fiziev will be a bit cautious on the feet, only relying on short and fast blitzes to deal his damage.

Since Fiziev is technically the faster striker, we would give the stand-up battle a slight nod in his favor.

Why Bet on Ignacio Bahamondes?

Bahamondes has rightfully made it this far in his career, having many highlight finishes on his record to prove his case as the scariest-ranked fighter in the division who is still young and not brain-damaged.

Bahamondes has that reach advantage to keep Fiziev at bay, which is why we have such high expectations of Fiziev using his blitzes to get into the pocket and land those strikes.

There is a reasonably high chance that Bahamondes might set up a guillotine choke from the clinch as he has the height advantage to posture over Fiziev and lock in that front headlock choke.

The other weapon in the arsenal that we see Bahamondes look to land will be the knees up the middle. They’re a highly effective weapon against anyone whose primary goal is to enter range through a blitz and may be used as a deterrent to stop Fiziev from entering that range.

Final Betting Analysis: Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

If Fiziev does find his way into the pocket, expect some tight hook combinations followed by a retreat away from any counters.

We expect a battle from Fiziev. He is a high-level competitor and has the fight IQ to make this one a dangerous fight for Bahamondes, but we don’t expect a finish despite both fighters being fantastic strikers.

However, we can see Fiziev taking the win on the scorecards.

UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Why Bet on Curtis Blaydes?

Curtis Blaydes stands out in the heavyweight division due to his elite-level wrestling—a skill that remains rare in a division often dominated by one-punch knockout artists. His ability to chain takedowns, control position, and push the pace over multiple rounds gives him a unique edge.

Blaydes has also shown steady progress in his striking, becoming more confident on the feet. However, while his hands are improving, his chin remains a concern. Against power punchers, trading shots could be risky, so his best path to victory remains his wrestling. With superior cardio and faster footwork, he’s likely to dictate how the fight takes place.

Why Bet on Rizvan Kuniev?

Rizvan Kuniev enters this bout with solid clinch striking and the kind of physical strength that can pose problems in short bursts. His elbows and dirty boxing inside the pocket were on display in his DWCS performance, and he’s capable of doing real damage when the fight stays close.

That said, Kuniev faces a major challenge in both conditioning and stylistic matchups. With a questionable gas tank and limited experience against relentless wrestlers, his ability to keep Blaydes off him over three rounds is uncertain. He’ll need to make the most of the early minutes, where his power is at the most dangerous.

Final Betting Analysis: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

While Kuniev has the power to change the fight with one clean shot, he’ll be working against the clock and the pressure of one of the division’s most consistent grapplers. If Blaydes avoids big counters and gets to his wrestling early, he should be able to control the pace and wear Kuniev down.

UFC Fight Night: Myktybek Orolbai vs. Tofiq Musayev

Why Bet on Myktybek Orolbai?

Olrolbai comes into this fight after a war against Mateusz Rebecki—a back-and-forth battle that ended in a razor-thin split decision. That kind of fight showcases his toughness, durability, and ability to thrive in chaos. He threw volume, took damage, and still managed to keep it close until the final bell.

What makes Orolbai dangerous is his grit and relentless style. Against someone as explosive as Musayev, the key will be to avoid a firefight and lean heavily on his grappling. If he can chain takedowns and keep Musayev from finding rhythm on the feet, he could grind out a win.

Why Bet on Tofiq Musayev?

Musayev makes his UFC debut at 35 years old, but don’t let that fool you; he’s far from inexperienced. A former RIZIN Lightweight Champion with a long list of first and second-round knockouts, Musayev brings serious power and a dangerous finishing instinct into the Octagon.

This will be his first fight under the UFC banner, and doing so in front of his home crowd adds an interesting edge. While the question remains about how his style translates to the UFV level, his raw power and finishing rate make him a very real threat early in this fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Myktybek Orolbai vs. Tofiq Musayev

This fight comes down to pace and control. If Musayev can create space and open up with his striking, he has the tools to end it early. But if Orolbai imposes his wrestling and keeps the fight in close quarters, he can smother the power and grind out a hard-fought win.

UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta

Why Bet on Nazim Sadykhov?

Sadykhov is the right dance partner to test Motta. He is exceptionally well-rounded, strong both on the feet and on the ground, and has the cardio to push a pace for three rounds.

Now, on the feet, expect a bit of a standard style of striking; he can certainly throw combinations and land with power, but everything he does is to set up those takedowns, and once Sadykhov is in full control of his opponent on the ground it is almost impossible for his opponent to get away.

One slight concern we have for Sadykhov is that he could get stuck in a fistfight against someone who has bricks for his hands. We don’t believe Sadykhov will last that long on the feet if both fighters choose to engage on the feet.

Why Bet on Nikolas Motta?

Motta is a fairly dangerous striker to deal with, and Sadykhov needs to be aware of the knockout threat he faces from the heavy-hitting Brazilian. However, we don’t know if Motta will thrive if someone like Sadykhov is pressuring him.

Now, if Motta does time his counters well, we expect that to stifle Sadykhov’s forward aggression. He may find success with his strikes in the first round. Still, as the rounds pass and fatigue sets in due to Sadykhov’s proposed game plan of looking for takedowns and attempting to overwhelm Motta, we think that Motta’s ability to land strikes will become a bit more sloppy or loopy.

Still, as long as Motta is on their feet, we expect there to be moments in which Motta can land a fight-ending punch.

Final Betting Analysis: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta

Motta has relatively good takedown defense on paper. Still, we would assume that Sadykhov is a fair bit better than Ogden in the wrestling department, so we expect Sadykhov to achieve some success during this fight with his takedowns or fence control.

We anticipate that Sadykhov will set the pace in this fight, especially since he is competing in front of his home crowd, representing Azerbaijan. We believe he will approach this match with added intensity to prove that he deserves a place in the UFC.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad

Why Bet on Muhammad Naimov?

Naimov is one of the sickest kickboxing-heavy strikers that we have seen in quite a while. First, his overall style is well-rounded; his kicks come from all angles and stances, andboth the lead leg and rear leg are viable weapons that he uses actively to deal damage. Still, the one thing that brings it all together is his boxing; he doesn’t overwhelm his opponents with a whole lot of volume, he is methodical and accurate with what he throws, he plans his combinations before throwing them, andthere are no reactions to an attack, it’s all well thought out and placed strikes.

Now, his wrestling and counter-wrestling are reasonably good. However, it’s clear that he’s a much better striker than a wrestler, so while Grad might be active with his takedown offense, we suspect he will run into the counterpunches.

Why Bet on Bogdan Grad?

Grad is relatively new to the UFC. He’s coming off a win against the ever-so-tough Lucas Alexander by way of ground and pound, and whilst his wrestling was somewhat ineffective, it still may be in his game plan this weekend to get the fight to the ground.

Still, as Ofli has himself experienced, entering the punching range of Naimov is no easy feat, and we doubt that Bogdan will walk away from this fight unscathed.

Final Betting Analysis: Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad

We don’t think that Grad has that many things in his arsenal that can make Naimov uncomfortable. He has always been careful on the feet and extremely well-trained, so if Grad is unable to overwhelm Naimov with volume and let him set up his strikes and counters, it’s going to be difficult for Grad to get anything going.

Naimov does cave a little bit under pressure. He does slow down a tiny bit if he is pressured and if his cardio is tested. However, the question here is: if Grad can create that much chaos over three rounds and at a high enough output to win in the judge’s eyes because there will be no finish, that’s what’s going to count the most: the visuals.

We don’t think Grad will achieve them.

UFC Fight Night: Seokhyeon Ko vs. Oban Elliott

Why Bet on Seokhyeon Ko?

Ko is coming off a string of victories, including a fantastic win on DWCS over Igor Cavalcanti, in which he fought a very clean fight. All of his strikes landed cleanly, and he was a sniper with his head strikes. On the ground, he was relatively active with his ground strikes and positional movements.

Seokhyeon Ko possesses a considerable amount of knockout power in his hands. He has built his career around his ferocious power and relentless pace on the feet, but we don’t think that will be enough here.

Why Bet on Oban Elliott?

Elliott has two things going for him: first, he trains out of Jack Shore’s gym.

The second thing here is UFC experience. Elliott has been in the UFC for a longer time. He has been in the spotlight during large shows, where the crowd can be overwhelming. Elliott has been in that environment before and has thrived.

Now, he may struggle against the power of Ko: we are not too sure what or how he might negate Ko on the feet, but we can assure you that he will be looking for takedowns and will use that opportunity on the ground to land some significant strikes.

Final Betting Analysis: Seokhyeon Ko vs. Oban Elliott

There will be moments where Ko will explode forward with his strikes and let his hands go, but we suspect that Elliott’s primary way to win this fight will ultimately counter that kind of offense.

Still, we are intrigued to see what Ko comes up with this weekend against such a well-versed wrestler like Elliott.

UFC Fight Night: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Jun Yong Park

Why Bet on Ismail Naurdiev?

Naurdiev looked outstanding when he fought Silva on his return to the UFC. Everything he threw came with well-timed strikes and incredible power, and those takedowns were something special.

Naurdiev’s double leg takedown is something special because not only is it a strong takedown that comes remarkably quickly for a Middleweight, but he is also quick to tie up the legs and maintain top control.

The longer this fight goes on, the more tired Naurdiev will become, and we have noticed that he does tire out a little in the second half of the fight.

Why Bet on Jun Yong Park?

Park is coming off an incredible fight against Taveres, in which we saw his amazing wrestling skills slow down the Hawaiian Hammer, as well as a significant output that swayed the judges in his favor.

Now, Park has always thrived as an active wrestler, and while we think he will be on the defensive for the most part here, we believe that his boxing will be a great deterrent in keeping Naurdiev at bay and maybe even freeze him up a little bit.

Still, the moment Naurdiev goes for a takedown, it could be game over for Park, who, despite having incredible grappling, is still going to have to out-scramble someone who is notoriously great on the ground.

Final Betting Analysis: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Jun Yong Park

There is a stark difference between Bruno Silva and Jun Yong Park. Park is a very technical, well-rounded fighter who has been in the UFC for a long time, having fought some top talent in his career. Undoubtedly, he possesses the right tools to defeat someone like Naurdiev.

Park has one tool in the arsenal that he can use actively throughout this fight to great success, and that’s the leg kick. He is a fairly good leg kicker, and if he can chop at those legs of Naurdiev early, it would eliminate a lot of the forward momentum that Naurdiev uses during his fights.

UFC Fight Night: Darya Zheleznyakova vs. Melissa Mullins

Why Bet on Darya Zheleznyakova?

Darya is not quite a UFC-level competitor but does have the striking to make this a rather interesting one to watch. Now, the main advantage that Darya has over Mullins here is her striking speed and volume. She may not be the most tenacious finisher, but she strikes often, and that could be enough to keep Mullins off of her for a while.

It’d be foolish not to admit that Mullins is fighting an uphill battle here, as Mullins is an excellent, well-rounded fighter with a solid advantage in the wrestling department. We believe that Darya is going to feel that wrestling pressure very early on as Mullins clashes and looks for the takedown.

Why Bet on Melissa Mullins?

Mullins is by no means a UFC-level competitor: she’s well-rounded, which probably falls into the “just fine” category for a Women’s Bantamweight fighter. However, when we watch her, we can’t help but be severely underwhelmed.

Her wrestling is going to be a big problem for Darya, and we hope that she presses the gas to overwhelm the younger and faster fighter.

Now, we do have some concerns about her weight, but if she looks fine on the scales, she shouldn’t be too deflated or too exhausted and should ultimately be able to do her best work still.

Final Betting Analysis: Darya Zheleznyakova vs. Melissa Mullins

Now, these two fought before, and the fight played out exactly how this one might, with Mullins being the more dominant wrestler and doing her work on the ground effortlessly, but that’s if Darya hasn’t improved her takedown defense, and that’s certainly going to be a major question and concern coming into this fight.

UFC Fight Night: Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Syguła

Why Bet on Irina Alekseeva?

Alekseeva is about as predictable as one can be, with her one-dimensional style of looking for Judo throws and takedowns necessary to find her submissions.

On her feet, she can be rather aggressive and often looks to create a bit of action, but ultimately, it’s all to set up her takedowns.

Why Bet on Klaudia Syguła?

Sygula is someone who had a horrific record coming into the UFC; her competition was dreadful. Now, it’s arguable that the reason she faced bad competition was due to regional competition, and that’s fair. However, when she fought Melissa Mullins, she had nothing really to offer Mullins competitively.

On the mat, she lacks defense. In her fight against Mullins, she proved to us that she doesn’t have the necessary movement and looked terrible against an opponent who is not Elite.

Final Betting Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Syguła

That’s about as simple as we can put things regarding this fight, and we think that with Alekseeva’s substantial reach advantage against a can crusher like Sygula, we reckon we are in for a bit of a one-sided beatdown from the “Russian Ronda.”

UFC Fight Night: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum

Why Bet on Tagir Ulanbekov?

Ulanbekov is a heavy-style grappler in this division, and what we mean by that is he is sticky and doesn’t let go of his opponents. As soon as he manages to get a hold of his opponent, he will stay clinched with them for as long as he can until the bell rings or his opponent finds an escape. Since Maksum does struggle with his takedown defense,we can imagine that early on in the fight, Maksum may find it difficult to escape Ulanbekov.

Ulanbekov has a very aggressive wrestling and takedown style in which he doesn’t just drag his opponent to the ground. He enters from a low position to secure a body lock, then lifts and slams his opponent to the ground, rather than a typical takedown, which is more of a linear crash that can cause an opponent to lose balance.

Why Bet on Azat Maksum?

Maksum is exceptionally quick and powerful on the feet. He will be giving Ulanbekov a few things to think about since he is quite snappy with his movement and footwork compared to Ulanbekov’s previous opponents, so we expect that first round to be a bit of a troubling one for Ulanbekov due to how quick and active Maksum is.

Now, Johnson was able to somewhat keep up with Maksum here. However, that was due to his scrappiness. We expect Ulanbekov to be a whole lot more technical with his ability and to use that to keep up and perhaps counter Maksum.

Final Betting Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum

We don’t think either one can come out with a clean win here. We expect some brilliant grappling exchanges, but it’s a very 50/50 fight despite what the odds say.

We think the first round might go to Maksum. Still, we believe Ulanbekov will take the 2nd and third rounds to win on the scorecards.

UFC Fight Night: Mohammed Usman vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

Why Bet on Mohammed Usman?

Usman is by no means a talented fighter. He’s large, muscular, and sometimes shows his athletic capabilities, but in terms of being a fighter at the UFC level, he is so far behind that we feel like, at this point, he’s in the UFC for as long as his more relevant brother is.

If Usman is switched on and looks brilliant this weekend, expect to see some strong jabs. He has a great jab, and while his footwork is about as stiff as a Cialis abuser, he still carries that heavyweight power, and with that 6-inch reach advantage, you better expect him to throw at least some strikes from a distance.

We believe that Usman can’t keep up with Hamdy’s takedown attempts, especially if they come very early in the fight when both fighters are dry.

Why Bet on Hamdy Abdelwahab?

Abdelwahab is only two fights deep into his UFC career, and he hasn’t shown anything that surprising. He is absolutely as advertised: a heavyweight wrestler who is changing his career from a high-level wrestler to an MMA fighter.

We expect to see him settle in a lot more and at least accomplish what he accomplished when he fought Mayes. While clean, Abdelwahab’s striking skills are basic at best, likely relying on boxing mainly to set up takedowns. He strikes from above, forces his opponent to raise their guard, then shoots for a takedown—that’s pretty much his modus operandi.

Final Betting Analysis: Mohammed Usman vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

The question here is how quickly Usman will succumb to the takedowns because they will be coming, and we have little doubt that Hamdy will waste his 4 minutes of total cardio in throwing HAMS.

Abdelwahab, at least, is trained with elite-level wrestling in mind. He has competed in the Olympics and won tournaments and competitions in the Middle East. Still, he will be a massive threat against Usman in the wrestling department.

Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Betting Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr.

Fiziev vs. Bahamondes Betting Pick: Rafael Fiziev

Blaydes vs. Kuniev Betting Pick: Curtis Blaydes

Orolbai vs. Musayev Betting Pick: Myktybek Orolbai

Naimov vs. Grad Betting Pick: Muhammad Naimov

Sadykhov vs. Motta Betting Pick: Naziv Sadykhov

Ko vs. Elliott Betting Pick: Oban Elliott

Naurdiev vs. Park Betting Pick: Jun Yong Park

Zheleznyakova vs. Mullins Betting Pick: Melissa Mullins

Alekseeva vs. Syguła Betting Pick: Irina Alekseeva

Ulanbekov vs. Maksum Betting Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov

Usman vs. Abdelwahab Betting Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab