Atualização semanal da NFL: Semana 7

Last Updated on Outubro 20, 2026 4:08 pm by Erwin Noguera

Kansas City are 5-0 with the second-best point differential in football, and they are underdogs on Sunday night.

Seattle are 2.5-point favourites at Lumen Field. ESPN’s model has the Chiefs winning by 0.7. It is one of three games this week where the projection and the market disagree about who should be favoured, and all three times the model takes the underdog.

We analyse the games of the league’s best four sides each week. Jacksonville are on a bye alongside Buffalo, the Chargers and Washington, which leaves San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and the Thursday night meeting between the two best 4-2 teams in the league.

The totals have moved hard in both directions. Indianapolis-Minnesota has fallen from 47.5 to 41.5, a six-point drop, the biggest move of the week. Dallas-Philadelphia is down four. Against that, three totals have climbed three points apiece: New England-Chicago, San Francisco-Atlanta and Green Bay-Detroit, the last now sitting at 53.5, the highest number on the board.

No Troca de Gambila, você pode explorar todas as previsões para o NFL, as apostas finais para esta jornada e as probabilidades para cada partida.

Jogos da Semana 7 da NFL

Bills, Chargers, Commanders, and Jaguars on bye.

NFL Week 7: Chiefs vs. Seahawks

A 5-0 team with a +57 point differential is getting points. Kansas City have won five from five, held the Chargers to six on Sunday, and Kenneth Walker III has become the centre of the offence: nineteen carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns last week. The pass rush that had gone sackless since Week 1 finally showed up.

Seattle are 3-3 and have lost three in a row, most recently 17-14 in overtime at Denver, where Sam Darnold went 27 of 51 with two interceptions. Their +26 differential is still joint sixth-best in the league, which is the gap between how they have played and what they have to show for it.

The model and the market disagree on the side.FPI makes Kansas City favourites by 0.7 with a 53% win probability, against a line that has Seattle laying 2.5. That is a three-point disagreement in the undefeated team’s favour. The total has also come down three points from 45.5, which fits a Seattle side whose scoring has fallen away across the losing run: thirty, then twenty-nine, then fourteen.

Lumen Field is the counter-argument, and it is a real one. It is the most tangible home advantage in the conference, and Seattle have had extra rest.

Prediction: Chiefs 24-20 Seahawks

NFL Week 7: 49ers vs. Falcons

San Francisco is 6-0 with a +67 differential, the best record and the best margin in football, by ten points over Kansas City. They beat Washington 23-17 on Monday night with Christian McCaffrey scoring twice, and they have done all of it without Nick Bosa and with Ricky Pearsall gone for the season.

Atlanta são 2-4 at minus eleven and have lost two straight, including 31-23 at home to Chicago.

This is the largest gap between line and model on the entire board.FPI makes the 49ers favourites by 8.3 points with a 79% win probability. The line is 3.Five and a third points of disagreement, in favour of the only unbeaten team with six games played.

The total climbing three points to 50.5 is the part that gives Atlanta a path. They scored 80 points in two games in late September with Michael Penix Jr. back, and a shootout is the version of this game they can win.

Prediction: 49ers 30-20 Falcons

NFL Week 7: Colts vs. Vikings

Minnesota is 5-0 with a +45 differential, and they are coming off a bye. The defence remains the best unit in the NFC, the special teams rank second in the league, and the offence has improved from one touchdown in three games to twenty-three points at New Orleans.

Indianapolis are 2-4 with a -20 differential and have lost two straight, most recently 26-20 at home to a Tennessee side that had not won all year.

Now the number.The line is 6.5. FPI has Minnesota by 3.9. That is 2.6 points of air, and it is the same shape of mispricing we flagged on Kansas City last week, when we predicted the Chiefs would win without covering 8.5 and they won by sixteen.

So we are going to be precise about what that gap is. It is information, not an instruction. The Week 4 lesson was not “fade favourites laying more than the model says”; it was “do not publish a caveat and then bet against it.” We over-applied it last week, and it cost us.

The total collapsing six points to 41.5 is the strongest signal in this game. Minnesota win 15-10 and 23-13. A 5-0 team laying 6.5 in a 41.5-point game has to win by more than fifteen percent of the expected scoring.

Prediction: Vikings 23-16 Colts

NFL Week 7: Patriots vs. Bears

The two best 4-2 teams in the league by point differential, on Thursday night. Chicago are at +31, New England at +23, and both arrive on winning runs.

Caleb Williams is back and immediately looked it: 30 of 36 for 305 yards in a 31-23 win at Atlanta, an 83% completion rate in his first game after the hamstring injury. Chicago led the NFL in total yards, first downs, and time of possession through the first month, and they won twice without him.

New England have won three straight. Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas two weeks ago in his first turnover-free game of the season, then they beat the Jets 26-19. Four weeks ago he led the league in turnovers.

FPI has Chicago by 2.4 with a 60% probability against a three-point line, effectively in agreement. The movement is in the total, up three points to 50.5, which is the market pricing both quarterbacks being healthy and sharp at the same time.

Prediction: Bears 27-24 Patriots

O restante da lista em uma linha

ESPN’s model disagrees with the market on the side in three games this week, and all three times it takes the underdog. Beyond Kansas City at Seattle: at Baltimore, the Ravens are laying 3, and FPI favours Cincinnati by 1 with a 54% probability, the Bengals returning from a bye against a Ravens side that scored ten points at Cleveland. And in Nashville, Cleveland are laying 1.5, and FPI makes Tennessee a 0.1-point favourite at exactly 50%, which is the model calling a genuine coin flip between a 4-2 team with a negative differential and a 1-5 team that just won.

Pittsburgh face New Orleans at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, the week’s international fixture, with the Steelers laying 3.5 after a 26-19 overtime win in which Aaron Rodgers threw 49 passes at the age of 42.

Houston are 10-point favourites against the Giants, and the model agrees exactly, giving them 10.4, the only double-digit spread on the board and the one game where projection and market are aligned at the top end.

Green Bay at Detroit carries the highest total of the week at 53.5, up three from its open, between two NFC North sides at 4-2 and 3-2.

And Dallas are 4.5-point road favourites in Philadelphia on Monday night, between two 2-4 teams whose seasons are going in the same direction. The total has dropped four points to 44.5, and the Eagles have lost four straight, with Jalen Hurts out indefinitely with a blood clot.