AFC North Update: Which Team Looks Ready to Take Control?

Last Updated on August 11, 2026 7:50 pm by Erwin Noguera

Trey Hendrickson left Cincinnati and signed with Baltimore. The Bengals responded by trading the tenth overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence.

That exchange tells you everything about this division right now. The AFC North is not being decided by quarterbacks; all four teams know what they have there. It is being decided on the defensive line, and two clubs spent the offseason in an arms race while the other two changed head coaches and started over.

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Here is where all four teams actually stand.

Baltimore Ravens — Division Favourite at -120

The market has Baltimore in front, and the reasoning is clear: Lamar Jackson.

When healthy, Jackson remains one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL and has taken this franchise to two AFC Championship games. Derrick Henry is still alongside him. The signing of centre Ethan Pocic gives the offensive line a genuine upgrade if he stays available.

The bigger move was defensive. Baltimore’s clearest weakness in 2025 was the pass rush, and they solved it by signing Trey Hendrickson away from a division rival. Putting him alongside Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton gives the Ravens a defensive core as strong as any in the conference.

The complication is on the sideline. Jesse Minter is a first-year head coach, taking over after John Harbaugh left for the Giants. Minter’s background is coordinating elite defences, which fits what Baltimore just built, but a coaching transition in a division this tight is a real variable, and the Ravens have consistently been better in September than in January.

Power rating models project them around 9.3 wins, roughly seven-tenths of a win clear of the next team. The favourite, correctly, but not by much.

Cincinnati Bengals — The Value Play at +180

Cincinnati is the most interesting team in the division and the hardest to predict, for one reason.

Everything relies on Burrow’s availability. With him, the Bengals are a legitimate contender. Without him, they are one of the worst teams in the league. There is no middle version of this roster, and the entire season is a bet on his health.

Assuming he plays, the case is strong. The defensive front was rebuilt from the ground up after losing Hendrickson; Dexter Lawrence arrives from the Giants for the tenth overall pick, with Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe added alongside him. That is a significant financial and draft-capital oath to fixing the unit that cost them games.

The schedule helps too. Cincinnati faces one of the easier slates of opposing offences in the league, and they profile as a positive regression candidate after a season where the underlying numbers were better than the record.

The pressure sits with Zac Taylor. Three straight seasons without a playoff appearance, a healthy quarterback, a rebuilt defence and a soft schedule leave no acceptable excuse. Some projections have Cincinnati winning this division outright.

The one recurring problem: the Bengals start slowly almost every year. Check back in Week 3. If they are 2-1 or better, this becomes very dangerous.

Pittsburgh Steelers — Third at +550

A 42-year-old quarterback, a first-year head coach, and a backloaded schedule.

Mike McCarthy has reunited with Aaron Rodgers for what looks like the quarterback’s final season, and Pittsburgh has at least tried to give him more to work with; Michael Pittman Jr. arrives to revamp an offensive attack that was basic and predictable in 2025. The backfield rotation between Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle should give McCarthy the power running element he prefers.

There is a case here. McCarthy knows how to build an offence around Rodgers, and a healthy version of that partnership was one of the most productive in NFL history.

There is a bigger case against. Pittsburgh is running it back with a quarterback in his forties in a division containing two Super Bowl contenders, with the hardest part of their schedule arriving late. The sensible move a year ago was starting a rebuild around a young quarterback. They chose the other path.

Watch Thursday’s preseason game against Green Bay for a signal. McCarthy has said he wants Rodgers to play; unusual for a quarterback this age, and an indication of how urgently Pittsburgh needs this to work early.

Cleveland Browns — Rebuilding

Cleveland is not competing for this division, and everybody involved knows it.

Todd Monken takes over with an unresolved quarterback situation. He has confirmed that Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders will each start one of the first two preseason games, with Dillon Gabriel also in the mix. Watson has missed 66 games over five seasons and thrown six interceptions across four practice days this camp. Sanders showed flashes as a rookie and is still inconsistent.

The larger move was trading Myles Garrett to the Rams, the best player on the roster and one of the best defensive players in football, for Jared Verse, a first-round pick and additional compensation. That was the right decision for a team in this position. It also removes any argument that Cleveland intends to compete in 2026.

What this season decides is whether the Browns finally move on from Watson and commit to a young quarterback. That is worth something. It is not worth wins.

So Who Takes Control?

Baltimore is the answer, but the margin is thinner than the odds suggest.

The Ravens have the best quarterback, the best defensive core after adding Hendrickson, and the fewest unresolved inquiries. Projection models give them a lead of less than a full win over Cincinnati. That is close to a coin flip dressed up as a favourite.

The genuine argument for Cincinnati is that they have the higher ceiling. A healthy Burrow behind a rebuilt defensive line with an easy schedule is a better team than Baltimore. The argument against is that “healthy Burrow” has been the Bengals’ entire strategy for years and it does not work.

The bet: Baltimore -120 is the safe number and offers no value. Cincinnati at +180 is the play if you believe Burrow makes sixteen or seventeen starts, which is the only question that matters.

What would change this: a slow Bengals September. Cincinnati’s tendency to dig early holes has cost them repeatedly, and in a division where the favourite is barely a win better, a 1-2 start would effectively end it before October.

Nobody has taken control yet. Baltimore is best positioned to. Cincinnati is the team most likely to take it from them.