Last Updated on Outubro 5, 2026 2:19 pm by Erwin Noguera
Visão geral da equipe
The Jaguars enter 2026 as defending AFC South champions and the league’s most dramatic turnaround story. After a 4–13 disaster in 2024, Jacksonville ripped off eight straight wins to close the 2025 regular season at 13–4 and steal the division from Houston in Week 18, making Liam Coen the first head coach in NFL history to win 13+ games in year one after inheriting a 13-loss team. The magic ran out in the Wild Card round, where Buffalo escaped EverBank Stadium with a 27–24 win, but the foundation around Trevor Lawrence and two-way star Travis Hunter is firmly in place.
GM James Gladstone’s offseason was a bet on continuity. Jacksonville was one of only three teams to make no outside additions during the legal negotiating window, instead re-signing its own core, including breakout corner Montaric Brown, whose 69.6 passer rating allowed ranked sixth among NFL corners, while protecting projected 2027 compensatory picks. The lone outside signing, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr., helps replace the departed Travis Etienne, and a ten-pick draft class plus 18 undrafted signings restocked the depth chart.
Análise da linha ofensiva
Continuity is the strategy here too: the unit that powered the eight-game win streak returns largely intact, and in a division where Houston spent big on veteran linemen, Jacksonville is betting that another year in Coen’s system beats new faces. Keeping Lawrence upright and the ground game on schedule without Etienne is the swing factor for this offense’s ceiling.
Análise da Linha Defensiva
The one real roster hole is on the edge, where the expiring contracts of Dawuane Smoot and Emmanuel Ogbah took over 700 snaps with them. Jacksonville traded up in the fourth round for edge rusher Wesley Williams to fill the rotation behind its established front, and how quickly that pass-rush depth develops will determine whether this defense can close December games the way it did during the 2025 streak.
Temporada da NFL de 2026
Semana 1:
Browns x Jacksonville Jaguars | Domingo, 13 de setembro | 13h (horário de Brasília) | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Flórida
The champs open at home as heavy favorites: Jacksonville is laying 7.5 points, with Cleveland at +230 to +295 on the moneyline and the total set at a modest 39.5–40.5. A rebuilt Browns roster travels to face a Jaguars team that won its final eight regular-season games at full throttle.
For a team hearing all offseason that 2025 was a fluke, a statement win over a beatable opponent is the ideal launch point, anything less will feed the regression narrative before the division gauntlet begins.
Semana 2
Jaguars at Denver Broncos | Sunday, September 20 | 4:05 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Jacksonville hits the road as a short underdog, priced at +124 on the moneyline against Denver’s -148, with the Broncos laying 2.5 points and the total set at 43.5. The champs handled Cleveland at home to open 1-0, extending the run of form that carried them through the end of last season, while Denver closes out Week 1 on Monday night at Kansas City in the game that will define the early AFC West picture.
Mile High is the hardest road environment in the conference and Denver’s defense was the best unit in the division a season ago, so a 2.5-point line is a compliment to Jacksonville rather than a slight. This is the first genuine test of whether the Jaguars are a real contender or a team that caught a soft stretch: win here and the regression talk stops for good.
Semana 3
Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday, September 27 | 1:00 PM ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville return home as 2.5-point favorites, priced at -145 on the moneyline against New England’s +120, with the total set at 44.5. Both teams sit at 1-1. The Jaguars let a game get away at Mile High, leading by ten before Denver came back to win 20-13, which means the road test they were set has been failed rather than passed. New England arrive in the opposite mood, having followed a 13-10 defeat in Seattle with a 20-3 dismantling of Pittsburgh at Gillette in which Drake Maye’s offense controlled the game and the defense returned a strip-sack for a score.
Laying 2.5 at home against a team that just held an opponent to three points is a thin number, and it reflects a market that has not made up its mind about either side. The question hanging over Jacksonville has not changed, it has only been postponed: they were given a chance to prove the early form was real and instead gave up a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Doing it in front of their own crowd against a Patriots side playing its best football of the season is a harder version of the same examination. Jacksonville should be favored here, but not by much, and not comfortably.
Semana 4
Jaguars x Cincinnati Bengals | Domingo, 4 de outubro | 13h (horário do leste dos EUA) | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Jacksonville hit the road as 2.5-point underdogs at +114 on the moneyline against Cincinnati’s -135, with the total set at 51.5 points, the highest on the Week 4 board. The Jaguars are 2-1 and arrive off the most complete performance of the weekend, a 35-6 win over New England in which they scored 29 more points than a defense that had just held Pittsburgh to three.
The model likes them here and the market does not. ESPN’s FPI makes Jacksonville the favorite by 1.3 points with a 55% win probability despite the Jaguars taking points on the road, and that gap is the largest in the division. Cincinnati are coming off a defeat in Pittsburgh and a 51.5 total invites a shootout, which is the environment Jacksonville just proved they can control. Taking points with the side the numbers prefer is the cleanest position on this card.
Semana 5
Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday, October 11 | 9:30 AM ET | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
Jacksonville are the designated home team in London and open as 4.5-point favorites at -218 on the moneyline against Philadelphia’s +180, with the total set at 43.5. The line has swung seven points: it opened with the Eagles favored by 2.5 and has flipped entirely. The Jaguars are 3-1 after winning 22-17 at Cincinnati, a week on from a 35-6 demolition of New England.
The model is even more emphatic than the move. ESPN makes Jacksonville favorites by 6.5 points with a 73% win probability, two points beyond the posted line. Philadelphia are 2-2 having been beaten 27-7 in Chicago and then losing at home to the Rams, and a 9:30 a.m. Eastern kickoff against a team playing a designated home game in a stadium it has used four times is close to the worst travel spot available. This is the Jaguars’ fourth game at Tottenham.
Chances de ganhar a divisão e o Super Bowl
Probabilidades de ganhar na AFC South: +218. Priced second behind Houston despite holding the belt; the market expects regression from the 13-win pace, setting the win total at just 8.5 (Over -140).
Chances de ganhar o Super Bowl: +2700 to +3000 depending on the book. Shorter than Indianapolis, longer than the true contenders.
Previsões
Registro geral: 10–7. The eight-game streak won’t repeat, but this roster is far better than an 8.5-win team; we like the Over, with a photo-finish division race against Houston that we narrowly give to the Texans.
Chances de playoff: Strong. Even as division runner-up, a Wild Card berth is the baseline expectation for this group.
Chances do Super Bowl: At +2700–+3000, a legitimate dark horse, but a deep January run requires the young edge rotation to hold up and Lawrence to sustain his late-2025 level for a full season.
In summary, the Jaguars enter 2026 with the division title, a historic turnaround behind them, and a market daring them to prove it was real. With Lawrence and Hunter leading an intact core under Coen, Jacksonville has the highest floor-to-ceiling combination in the AFC South, and the Week 18 rematch narrative with Houston should make this the league’s best division race.
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