Probabilidades de apostas do Kansas City Chiefs

Last Updated on Janeiro 7, 2026 4:10 pm by Allen

Visão geral da equipe

O Kansas City Chiefs entra na temporada 2025/2026 em busca do seu 10º título consecutivo da AFC West, com Patrick Mahomes liderando um elenco reformulado. O Kansas City enfrenta odds de campeonato mais baixas do que nos anos anteriores, mas continua sendo o favorito da divisão, com odds de -118, refletindo o aumento da concorrência dentro da AFC West. Os Chiefs perderam veteranos importantes, incluindo o guard Joe Thuney para o Chicago e o wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins para o Baltimore, exigindo ajustes em sua fórmula de campeonato. Mahomes promete um ataque aéreo mais agressivo, depois que a abordagem conservadora de 2024 limitou as oportunidades de grandes jogadas. Os Chiefs projetam um recorde de 12-5 enquanto buscam outra participação no Super Bowl.

Análise da linha ofensiva

O Kansas City enfrenta questões significativas na linha ofensiva após perder o veterano armador Joe Thuney para a free agency. O calouro Josh Simmons, primeira escolha do draft, assume a função de left tackle ao lado do armador Kingsley Suamataia, em seu segundo ano, criando um novo lado esquerdo da linha. Os Chiefs permitiram 36 sacks em 2024, o maior total de Mahomes em sua carreira, o que levou às mudanças na offseason. A eficácia da linha ofensiva determinará a capacidade de Mahomes de implementar seu prometido ataque agressivo de passes em campo. O Kansas City adicionou profundidade com Jaylon Moore, mas espera desenvolvimento interno dos jovens jogadores.

Análise da Linha Defensiva

Os Chiefs fortaleceram sua linha defensiva adicionando Jerry Tillery para aumentar a profundidade do pass rush interno, mantendo os edge rushers Chris Jones e George Karlaftis. A linha defensiva de Kansas City fornece a base para uma unidade que precisa compensar as dificuldades da linha ofensiva. A linha defensiva demonstrou melhora na geração de pressão durante a campanha do campeonato de 2024, e a adição de Tillery deve proporcionar uma ruptura interna mais consistente. A defesa dos Chiefs depende muito da capacidade desta unidade de criar situações de terceira descida para a defesa secundária.

Prévia da temporada 2025 da NFL

Primeiro jogo de abertura – contra o Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City estreia no Brasil contra Carregadores de Los Angeles na sexta-feira, 6 de setembro, marcando o primeiro jogo da temporada regular da NFL na América do Sul. Os Chiefs perderam por 27 a 21 para os Chargers, com Patrick Mahomes passando para 258 jardas e pontuando tanto pelo ar quanto pelo chão. Apesar de uma pressão tardia, os Chiefs não conseguiram superar as oportunidades perdidas e os turnovers iniciais.

O recebedor novato Xavier Worthy ficou afastado após uma colisão e uma lesão no ombro direito, agravando os problemas para um corpo de recebedores já debilitado e sem Rashee Rice e Jalen Royals. A defesa também teve dificuldades com as penalidades e não conseguiu conter Justin Herbert, que lançou três touchdowns.

Os Chiefs procuram se reagrupar para a estreia em casa em 14 de setembro contra o Filadélfia Eagles, com o objetivo de melhorar a execução e a profundidade do recebedor contra uma defesa secundária de elite.

Semana 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Os atuais campeões sofreram sua segunda derrota consecutiva, caindo para 0-2 pela primeira vez desde 2014. Patrick Mahomes lançou para 187 jardas e correu para 66 jardas com um touchdown, mas o touchdown perdido de Travis Kelce, que se tornou uma interceptação, foi decisivo. A defesa dos Eagles dominou durante todo o jogo, limitando as jogadas explosivas do Kansas City e forçando turnovers cruciais. As decisões agressivas de Andy Reid em quartas descidas saíram pela culatra, e as dificuldades ofensivas dos Chiefs sem recebedores importantes ficaram mais evidentes.

Week 3 vs. New York Giants

The Kansas City Chiefs bounced back from their poor start with a convincing 22-9 victory over the Gigantes de Nova York on Sunday Night Football, earning their first win of the 2025 season and avoiding a dreaded 0-3 start. Patrick Mahomes completed 22 of 37 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown to Tyquan Thornton, while also making a crucial momentum-shifting play by recovering his own backward pass from defender Bobby Okereke’s hands. The Chiefs defense dominated the Giants’ receiving corps, holding star rookie Malik Nabers to just two catches for 13 yards despite being targeted seven times. Isiah Pacheco led the ground game with 45 yards on 10 carries as Kansas City controlled the line of scrimmage.

While the victory was essential to prevent an unprecedented 0-3 start to the Mahomes era, the Chiefs still face significant challenges in catching up to the 3-0 Chargers in the AFC West. Despite the struggles through three weeks, Andy Reid’s team showed signs of their championship DNA by responding to adversity and finding ways to win ugly games. The Chiefs will host Corvos de Baltimore next week in what could be a pivotal early-season matchup as they attempt to string together consecutive victories and regain their championship form.

Week 4 vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Chiefs delivered a statement victory, demolishing the Corvos de Baltimore 37-20 at Arrowhead Stadium in their most complete performance of the season. Patrick Mahomes threw for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns without an interception, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. The return of Xavier Worthy (shoulder) provided an immediate impact, as he recorded 5 receptions for 83 yards while also contributing 38 rushing yards on two carries. The Chiefs’ defense dominated, sacking Lamar Jackson three times and forcing him to exit the game in the third quarter with a hamstring injury.

Kansas City’s resurgence, combined with the Chargers’ surprising loss, has dramatically shifted the AFC West race, with the Chiefs now at 35% to win the division compared to just 23% entering Week 4. They travel to Jacksonville for Monday Night Football in Week 5, looking to build on their momentum.

Week 5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs dropped a nail-biter 31-28 to the Jaguares de Jacksonville, as Patrick Mahomes passed for 476 yards and four touchdowns but was unable to overcome costly mistakes, including a 99-yard pick-six and a lost fumble. Penalties and special teams errors plagued the team, and injuries to receiver Xavier Worthy affected their offensive rhythm in key moments.

Kansas City’s next test comes against the Leões de Detroit, where the team aims to tighten fundamentals, manage penalties, and restore momentum in the AFC West race.

Week 6 vs. Detroit Lions

The Kansas City Chiefs bounced back with a dominant 30-17 Sunday Night Football victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 6. Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdowns and ran for another, while Marquise “Hollywood” Brown found the end zone twice to help build the lead. The defense held firm when needed, forcing critical turnovers including an Amon-Ra St. Brown fumble late in the game. Kansas City improved to 3-3 and hosted the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 7.

Week 7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Kansas City Chiefs delivered their most dominant performance of the season in Week 7, shutting out the Las Vegas Raiders 31-0 at Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes was sensational, throwing for 286 yards and three touchdowns, including 206 yards and three scores on the first three drives alone, becoming the first QB since 2000 to accomplish that feat. Rashee Rice made his 2025 debut after a six-game suspension with seven catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense held Las Vegas to just 96 total yards and three first downs. Kansas City improved to 4-3 and hosts the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football in Week 8.

​Week 8 vs. Washington Commanders

The Chiefs rolled to a 28-7 win over the Commanders, with Patrick Mahomes throwing three touchdowns and Travis Kelce racking up 99 yards and a score. The defense dominated throughout, forcing turnovers and preventing Washington from ever mounting a serious threat.

With a relatively clean injury report, the Chiefs look primed for their heavyweight matchup against the Notas de búfalo in Week 9, a game that could have major implications for AFC home-field advantage.

​Week 9 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss in three games, falling 28-21 to the Notas de búfalo after Patrick Mahomes delivered one of his worst performances with 15 completions on 34 attempts for 250 yards and no touchdowns. Kansas City’s offense struggled to establish rhythm throughout the contest.​

The Chiefs enjoy a bye week in Week 10 before returning to action in Week 11.​

​Week 11 vs. Denver Broncos

The Chiefs fell 22-19 to Denver on a last-second field goal, dropping their third straight game and falling 3.5 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West. Patrick Mahomes completed 29 of 45 passes for 276 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but Kansas City’s red zone struggles continued, converting just 3-of-14 touchdowns against Denver since 2023. Travis Kelce led all receivers with nine catches for 91 yards and a touchdown.​​

The Chiefs lost running back Isiah Pacheco to a knee injury and played without several key offensive linemen. Kansas City sits at a critical crossroads at 5-5, outside the playoff picture, and must quickly solve offensive line issues before facing another AFC West rival.​

Week 12 Vs. Indianapolis Colts: 

Chiefs won a crucial 23-20 overtime game over the Indianapolis Colts. Trailing 20-9 in the fourth quarter, Patrick Mahomes led a comeback, throwing for 352 yards. Harrison Butker was perfect on five field goals, including the game-winning 27-yarder in OT.

Mahomes’ fourth-quarter heroics; Butker’s clutch kicking; dominant time of possession with 42 minutes ball control. Chiefs face the Indianapolis Colts again, seeking to build on momentum and cement their AFC West lead.

​Week 13 vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Chiefs fell short in a Thanksgiving Day shootout, losing 31-28 to the Dallas Cowboys. Despite a spirited effort from Patrick Mahomes, who kept the offense moving in a back-and-forth affair, the defense struggled to contain Dallas’s attack late in the game. The loss drops Kansas City to .500 (6-6) and puts their playoff hopes in a more precarious position.

They will need to bounce back quickly under the prime-time lights. Next week, the Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium to host the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.

​Week 14 vs. Houston Texans

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered a devastating 20-10 home loss to the Houston Texans, officially ending their nine-year reign as AFC West champions. Patrick Mahomes threw three interceptions and completed just 14 of 33 passes for 160 yards as the offense sputtered throughout. Andy Reid’s controversial fourth-and-1 decision at his own 31-yard line with the game tied 10-10 backfired, leading to a Houston touchdown and effectively sealing Kansas City’s fate.​

The loss dropped the Chiefs to 6-7, their first sub-.500 record through 13 games since 2012. Kansas City’s playoff chances have dwindled to just 12% after missing the postseason bracket entirely. The Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15 in what amounts to a must-win game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.​

​Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered a catastrophic 16-13 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15, a defeat that both eliminated them from playoff contention and saw franchise quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffer a season-ending torn ACL in his left knee. The Chiefs offense managed just 239 total yards and 13 points, struggling with an offensive line missing key starters including guard Trey Smith, tackle Jawaan Taylor, and center Tanya Morris. Mahomes’ injury occurred with less than two minutes remaining when he scrambled right and was chased down by defensive end Da’Shawn Hand; after planting his left foot to throw the ball away, his knee buckled and he collapsed in pain. An MRI confirmed the torn ACL, and Mahomes underwent successful surgery the following day to repair both the ACL and LCL.​

The loss dropped the Kansas City Chiefs to 7-8 and ended their remarkable streak of 10 consecutive playoff appearances, which would have tied the NFL record. Mahomes’ biggest mistake came on a critical fourth-quarter red zone interception when an incompletion would have allowed a game-tying field goal attempt. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew replaced Mahomes but threw an interception to safety Derwin James Jr. on his fifth snap, sealing Kansas City’s fate. The Chiefs now face the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 with Minshew at quarterback and a lost season ahead, turning focus to 2026 and Mahomes’ recovery timeline.

​​Week 16 vs. Tennessee Titans

The Kansas City Chiefs’ nightmare season continued with a devastating 26-9 loss to the Tennessee Titans, guaranteeing the franchise its first losing season since 2012. In a cruel twist of fate, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a left knee injury on just the third play of the game, forcing third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun into action for the majority of the contest. Minshew completed just 3 of 8 passes for 15 yards before exiting, while Oladokun finished 11 of 16 for 111 yards and was sacked four times in his first significant NFL action. Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns with a 122.3 passer rating, while running back Tony Pollard rushed for 102 yards to record his third consecutive 100-yard game. Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons dominated, recording a safety by tackling Kareem Hunt in the end zone and batting down two passes. The Chiefs managed just three Harrison Butker field goals and were limited to 126 passing yards as an offense. Tennessee snapped an 11-game home losing streak with the victory, marking their first home win since January.​​

With Patrick Mahomes already lost for the season and now Minshew likely done as well, the Chiefs turn to Oladokun for their Christmas Day home game against Denver and the season finale, facing an uphill battle to salvage any dignity from a lost season.

​​Week 17 vs. Denver Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs lost 13-20 to the Denver Broncos on Christmas night at GEHA Field, falling to 6-10 and extending their losing streak to five games. Chris Oladokun, starting with Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both on injured reserve with knee injuries, threw for just 66 yards and one touchdown while the offense managed only 82 rushing yards and settled for two Harrison Butker field goals.. The Kansas City Chiefs defense forced one turnover but could not contain Bo Nix on the Denver Broncos’ late scoring drive, and the team placed wide receiver Nikko Remigio on injured reserve with a knee injury earlier in the week..​

Week 18 sends the Kansas City Chiefs to Las Vegas for a season finale against the Raiders, where they must protect the football, generate chunk plays through the air and keep a relentless Denver Broncos pass rush from taking over long-yardage situations to avoid closing the season on a six-game skid.​

Week 18 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Kansas City Chiefs closed the regular season with a 12-14 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Las Vegas, finishing 6-11 and losing their sixth straight game to end the year. Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele combined for 66 passing yards while backup quarterbacks managed the offense, and Harrison Butker made four field goals but the Kansas City Chiefs failed to reach the end zone despite multiple scoring opportunities. The Kansas City Chiefs allowed eight sacks and managed only 84 rushing yards, with Tyree Wilson recording a fourth-quarter safety for the Las Vegas Raiders that ultimately proved to be the deciding margin.​

The Kansas City Chiefs now enter an offseason focused on getting Patrick Mahomes and other key starters healthy, rebuilding offensive line depth and clarifying the long-term outlook for veterans such as Travis Kelce, who finished with just 12 receiving yards on three catches in what could have been his final game. Regaining physicality up front and restoring some of the explosive identity that carried the Kansas City Chiefs to multiple Super Bowls will be central themes if they hope to quickly rebound in a division now topped by the Denver Broncos.

Chances de ganhar a divisão e o Super Bowl

Kansas City mantém odds de -118 para vencer a AFC West, suas odds divisionais mais baixas em anos devido à competição acirrada. As odds dos Chiefs para o Super Bowl estão em +750, refletindo sua permanência como favoritos ao título, apesar das mudanças no elenco. Essas odds reconhecem a tradição do Kansas City no campeonato, ao mesmo tempo em que reconhecem os desafios impostos pela melhora de Denver e pelo equilíbrio competitivo em toda a divisão. Os Chiefs continuam sendo o padrão ouro da AFC, apesar das dúvidas sobre seu elenco de apoio.

Previsões para 2025

Os Chiefs projetam um recorde de 12-5 e o título da AFC West, embora com menos margem de erro do que nas temporadas anteriores. A previsão é de que Mahomes retorne a passes mais agressivos, potencialmente alcançando o maior número de jardas da carreira com maior precisão em passes longos. A defesa deve se manter no top 10, enquanto o desenvolvimento da linha ofensiva determina o teto das aspirações de Kansas City ao título. A previsão é de que os Chiefs cheguem ao jogo do título da AFC com potencial para outra aparição no Super Bowl, caso as melhorias na linha ofensiva se mostrem eficazes.